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My (Mike’s) Points League Draft

March 27th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Mike Podhorzer


Patrick’s points league posts motivated me to analyze my own points league draft.

To me, points leagues are the easiest leagues to prepare for. With every stat converting into the same currency (points), it’s much simpler to determine rankings than calculating values for a 5×5 roto league. One of my first posts here dealt with exactly how I go about coming up with my rankings for a points league snake draft. If you missed it, check it out here. What many owners don’t understand is how much the specific scoring system affects player values. This is why it is imperative to project each category that scores points for every player.

With that said, here’s a quick rundown of the league settings:

-9 team mixed with daily transactions (yes, 9 teams! I was invited into the league and expected 12, but somehow only 9 ended up in the league)

-Positions are: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL (for the record, I can’t stand these pitcher designations. just let me draft my staff with however many starters and relievers I want! damn Yahoo defaults)

-Scoring is: R (1), 1B (1), 2B (2), 3B (3), HR (4), RBI (1), SB (2), BB (1), IP (3), W (10), L (-5), CG (5), SHO (5), SV (10), H (-1), ER (-1), BB (-1), K (1)

-There is a max innings cap of 1275. This is key, as pitcher rankings change, sometimes dramatically. This is because instead of looking at aggregate strikeouts and wins, we need to evaluate these numbers on a per inning basis. Pitchers who throw a lot of innings which net them solid win and K totals by year-end, but actually have mediocre K rates, lose value. The opposite is also true, as pitchers who are projected for only 160 innings, for example, but with great K rates, will gain value. Gainers include pitchers such as Pedro, Lincecum, Burnett, Hughes, and Buchholz. Losers include Webb, Oswalt, and Halladay.

Now let’s check out the team (I had the 5th pick):

C- Victor Martinez (3rd Rd): Even though it’s a 1 catcher league, my points rankings told me that he was the 7th most valuable hitter! I was pretty shocked too, but that’s why it’s so important to follow my rankings guide linked to above.

1B- Mark Teixeira (2nd Rd): Looks like I matched Patrick’s 2nd Rd pick here. I have him as the 4th highest point getter at 1B, 1 point ahead of Prince.

2B- Rickie Weeks (16th Rd): I was absolutely shocked Weeks lasted until pick 140. In every other draft I’ve participated in, he’s gone much earlier than I had him valued. I was expecting to get Kelly Johnson as my 2nd baseman, but he was drafted in the previous round, leaving me to pray that Weeks lasted until my next pick, since he was the only positive-valued 2nd baseman left. Another shock was when Howie Kendrick was taken several picks before Weeks. Talk about not understanding the scoring system. Kendrick NEVER walks, leading to a 21st ranking at 2B.

SS- Rafael Furcal (10th Rd): I had him as the 8th highest scoring SS, with a big dropoff after him. I was holding my breath, as with Weeks, hoping he’d fall to me. Luckily, the other owners helped me out with picks such as Tejada in the 7th round, who I had ranked as the 12th highest scoring SS.

3B- David Wright (1st Rd): I was pleasantly surprised, no ecstatic, when Wright fell to me. I rated him tied (with Holliday) as the 2nd highest scoring player at any position, and slightly more valuable than Holliday after taking position into account.

IF- Lance Berkman (4th Rd): Not really a steal here, but basically the highest ranked player using the points above replacement method.

OF- Bobby Abreu (5th Rd): Gets a huge value boost in points leagues with all the walks. I projected him as the 4th highest scoring OFer and was very happy to land him in the 5th.

OF- Nick Markakis (6th Rd): Excellent all-around player with some upside to my projections, especially if the steals continue at last year’s pace. I had him pegged at 3rd to 4th round value.

OF- Brad Hawpe (11th Rd): I expect similar numbers to last year and he gained a little bit of value compared with traditional roto leagues.

OF- Nick Swisher (13th Rd): This pick really surprised me. I’ve seen him go in many roto leagues between picks 50 and 70 and have absolutely no idea why. I think he is being massively overvalued. So you’d think that in a points league where he gains a lot of value with all his walks, he’d be like 4th round material, right? Well that’s what I thought, but somehow I got him 113th overall, and I couldn’t be happier.

Util- Adrian Gonzalez (9th Rd): I have no idea how I ended up drafting him in 3 of my 4 leagues, as I didn’t think my projections were better than anyone else’s. Just another case of grabbing the highest ranked player for my Utility slot, and getting great value.

Util- Jeremy Hermida (18th Rd): Here’s another player I’m surprised lasted this long with all his sleeper hype. Like Swisher, he also gains value in this format with his good OBP.

BN- Jack Cust(23rd Rd)
BN- Conor Jackson (25th Rd): Just drafted the highest ranked hitters at the end. Cust’s value massively increases in this league with all his walks, and no negatives for strikeouts, and I love Conor this year batting 3rd. Cust/Conor will be filling in for Hermida while he’s injured.

SP- Scott Kazmir (7th Rd): Ughh, why did I have to draft him in 2 leagues? I’m so expecting any day now for a Rotoworld blurb announcing that he’ll be undergoing TJ Surgery. As long as he’s healthy, he’s a steal in the 7th round in this format with that K rate. Even if he only pitches 150 innings, that’s fine as all I need to do is reach the low IP limit with quality on a per inning basis.

SP- Tim Lincecum (12th Rd): Love, love, love him, as you may remember from my Five Players article on the Giants. I was also aware 2 other league members have a man crush on him, so I was very happy to get him before they did. He also gains some value in this style league with the IP limit.

SP- Pedro Martinez (14th Rd): Honestly, just give me 150 innings and the pick would be an absolute steal. Here’s another IP cap gainer that no one else knew to take advantage of. When he pitches, he’ll be excellent, and that’s what matters most in this league.

SP- Brett Myers (15th Rd): Hopefully he holds up for a full-season after the weird year as closer last season. He’s sufferred from high BABIPs and HR/F ratios basically every year, some of which could be blamed on the ballpark, and I wonder if some is just consistent bad luck or another rare exception to the rules. Just 1 year of good luck in those 2 categories would allow him to post a mid-3 ERA easily. Let’s hope it’s this year!

RP- Jonathan Papelbon (8th Rd): I almost never take top closers, but in a league that requires 2 RPs, his value jumps. In the 8th round, I couldn’t pass him up as he was staring me in the face atop my rankings.

RP- Rafael Soriano (20th Rd): This pick is much more like me, although getting him in the 20th round was quite the surprise. As long as he stays healthy, he could easily finish as a top 10 closer.

BN- Clay Buchholz (19th Rd)
BN- Randy Johnson (21st Rd)
BN- Zack Greinke (22nd Rd)
BN- Edinson Volquez (24th Rd, dropped John Patterson for him): I love Buchholz this year, and in a league where
I care more about quality of innings than quantity (assuming the Sox limit his innings), as long as I reach the IP cap, he gets a nice value boost. If healthy, RJ proved last year he could still dominate. I, and I know many others, like Greinke this year. I drafted Patterson in this league, just like my other 3 leagues, and ended up dropping him for Volquez. Edinson always had the stuff to succeed but his control was holding him back. I’m not usually one to even look at any spring stats, but those 26 K’s and only 4 BB’s in 20 innings are eye popping. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if it was just a spring fluke or a foreshadowing of a breakout season.

Well that wraps up the team. As always, I loaded up on hitters and feel that I have an insane offense. I then took advantage of knowing the settings and how it affects pitcher values to pick up bargains in the later rounds and still have a top staff with lots of upside. Of course in only a 9 team league, the team might look better than it is. I did project the standings though and have myself in 1st by 354 points, with 11,319 total points, which really isn’t very much. In a snake draft, it’s much tougher to have that much better of a draft than your competitors than in an auction draft. Let me know your thoughts!

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 27, 2008 at 10:28 pm

    Here is a fundamental flaw in evaluating a team by your own methodology. You will always come out on top! When drafting you are trying to maximize your own points, so when you do that you should have the highest ranked teams since you are the only one maximizing your own point value.

    Someday I will try to think about this principle and write about it, but this is one reason why everyone is usually happy with their team. Unless you have two guys with the same plans everyone thinks they have a great team because they do, based on their own system.

    Does this make sense? Not saying you don’t have a great team, but to evaluate you should take a third party system and then run the teams through it.

  • 2 Mike Podhorzer // Mar 27, 2008 at 11:23 pm

    Absolutely agree, and when I tell some leaguemates what I project the standings to be, I always include the caveat that I’m using my own projections, so I better project myself to win! Because of this, I usually like to see me winning by a big margin, but I’ve never done a points league before, so I don’t know how big a margin I should see myself winning by.

    At least I know I drafted well with my projections, but there’s a big problem if you aren’t projecting yourself for 1st or 2nd!

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