Draft time is now over, so I had one final wrap-up on drafts.

Here are some final thoughts and theoretical principles that pertain to drafts. I am certain that my point about gaining fractional/marginal points in certain drafts has never been written about before, but it is true and is a key reason why certain strategies work over others in a given context.

We have defined two strategies, the “Standard” strategy and the “Pitching” strategy. The Standard Strategy is a fine default strategy when the league meets two conditions:

1. The owner utilizing the strategy has an edge in judgment and knowledge; and
2. There are enough owners following alternate strategies that it rates to have an edge.

It is a pet peeve of mine when other “experts” and writers tout the use of the Standard Strategy in a vacuum, taking the solipsistic view that nothing else aside from you and your team exists. The folly of this is self evident and yet every year one can find dozens of examples where this advice is touted as a magic elixir for your fantasy woes. One other point: the edge in judgment or knowledge needn’t mean that the edge exists as compared to each and every owner, but only as a whole compared to the rest of the league.

With regard to my fractional/marginal points theory, for example, when starting pitchers are drafted far earlier than they should, an emphasis on hitting in the first few rounds gains those key marginal points to the team that emphasizes offense with each pitcher drafted by opponents. Whenever you are amassing either offense or pitching to the exclusion of the other, then in the example of the Standard Strategy, with each pitcher drafted by the opponents you gain a fractional or marginal amount of points in offense.

Why? Because each slot in the draft doesn’t represent a player, it represents a possibility for points. So if you take a player with a projected 500 points on offense, and are ignoring pitching for five rounds lets say, then with each pitcher drafted you gain marginal points. That is because in comparison with your strategy that player loses offensive points. Not only do you get 500 points you get some number of points based upon the opportunity cost of your opponents drafting a pitcher when they could have drafted a hitter, in relation to your team.

The flip side is that when you are drafting pitchers you may be giving up those fractional/marginal points later on. The balancing act comes in when your later picks do not give up as many points as you gain in earlier picks, because you are using your edge in knowledge and judgment to minimize their gain and maximize yours.

So, each roster position represents a potential for points, which aside from concrete points from the player drafted, contain the possibility for additional opportunity cost points can be increased or decreased depending upon your selection ability compared to the rest of the league.

I realize this is a very theoretical concept that has never been fully elucidated before as far as I know, and can be difficult to grasp, but it goes right to the heart of the balancing of value and opportunity cost that is the basis of all fantasy baseball.