Without further ado, here is the first roundtable of the new venture: who do you prefer in 2008, Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder?

The Generals:I go for Howard in a very close contest. It is all about regression to the mean. Howard has the highest power rating in the majors. His contact rate stinks and depresses his BA, but in that park and assuming good health he is as close to a lock for 45 HR as there is.

As for Fielder, in the long run he will be far more valuable but the fact is that it is very rare to hit 50 HR back to back, and especially rare for a 24 year old to do it, so I am just betting that he won’t repeat and the extra homeruns will make up for the BA difference.

That said, far be it from me to tell you that you should take Howard; reasonable minds can and do differ so feel free to take Fielder as some of my colleagues below suggest.

Rob Reed–Baseball Geeks-No brainer at this stage. Howard struck out 199 times last year… that is just ridiculous… and, it shows that when Howard slumps, he presses. This might also be an indicator that he is simply thinking about one thing when he gets up to the plate — the long ball. I like the park where Fielder plays. I much prefer his batting average last year, obviously.

Over the long haul of this next season, I suspect that they are pretty much identical players. BUT, Fielder is 4-5 years younger than Howard. It is very possible that we have seen the best that Ryan Howard can do in 2006. I think we have yet to see the best from Fielder. He’s turns 24 in May.

And, I love the thought that Fielder has done this while using his own, presumable choice of performance enhancer: the double cheeseburger. That is more entertaining for me.

Tim Dierkes-Roto Authority–Howard. More HRs and ribbies, and I think he will rebound in AVG and not be much worse than Prince in that category.

Derek Carty-The Hardball Times Fantasy Focus–I think it depends a little bit on the league setup, but in all honesty, I’m probably taking a more consistent producer in the late first or early second round and waiting to fill first base with Mark Teixeira in the third round or a Carlos Pena/Paul Konerko type later on.

Granted, all three of the top first basemen have great power. What concerns me with Fielder is his 47% outfield fly ball rate in 2007. It was just 37% in 2006, and 30% in Triple-A in 2005. While it has been climbing, the risk of a falloff is there.

The same thing can be said about Howard. He had a 50% outfield fly ball rate in 2007, a 35% rate in 2006, and a 29% rate in 2005. He has always posted better HR/FB rates (over 30% the past three years, including a 2006 of 41%) than Fielder (26% in 2007 and 18% in 2006), meaning that a fly ball percentage drop wouldn’t hurt him quite as much. However, he’s also a worse batting average bet given his career 66% contact rate (which was 63% in 2007) compared to Fielder’s 78% career contact rate.

Jay Sarney–Greener on the Other Side–The similarities are plentiful for these young, hugely powerful, lefty first basemen. They are each parts of up and coming teams with potent young lineups. They are both likely to finish 1-2 in the homerun race and with adding Alex Rodriquez, are virtual locks for the top 3, if there was any such a term in fantasy baseball.

The question is who is a better value pick for fantasy baseball owners? I happen to think it is a simple selection. And I will tell you a number of reasons why, the Prince is King.

Ryan Howard is NOT going to bat .300. He isn’t even going to come close. It boggles my mind to see projections at .290 or .295 or .300, even. Stop it right there. He will TOP OUT at .285…MAX. That would be a bonus.

I am thinking a more realistic and mortal .279. I base this on the fact that last season he had a putrid contact rate of 62%. Out of all batters in 2007 with at least 500 AB’s, no one was even close to as horrible a CR as this. He just strikes out way too much for anyone to realistically think he will hit .300+. He will likely strike out 200 times in 2008.

Having still hit 47 HR’s last season, pitchers must have figured him out, well, at least got better at it. His .268 final batting average probably hurt owners a bit in the category, but he is still a top slugger and a 50 HR candidate with loads of RBI and run potential for 2008. Still a must have player, but in this debate, he is the second best at first.

Now, on to the reasons Fielder gets the slight edge over Howard. Fielder’s CR was nearly 80%, just missing at 79%. Math majors are not needed to see the drastic difference. This is a huge indicator why he batted .288 in 2007.

Besides, there is one more thing, that extra added motivator…Cash. Ryan Howard recently won an arbitration hearing, awarding him millions of dollars, while Fielder had his contract renewed, shutting him out another year at Howard-type money.

The guy is not happy. This is a contract season for Fielder who is looking to get P-A-I-D in 2008. Not only does he hit for a higher average, but he may hit a few more homers than Howard.

The pick- Prince Fielder.

Eric Stashin-RotoProfessor-When you’re comparing Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, you are not only looking at two of the best young first baseman, but two of the premier power hitters in the game. Either one would be a great weapon to have on your fantasy roster, but when it comes down to it, whom would I rather have?

Prince Fielder is a great power hitter. He has every chance of once again launching 50 HR’s, though I think that it is more likely he ultimately ends up with right around 45. He’s going to drive in around 120 runs, hopefully score 100 and hit right around .280-.290. Those are quality numbers. They are even first round numbers. But are they Ryan Howard numbers?

Howard, should easily eclipse 45 HR once again, playing in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Ballpark. Last season, he hit just 3 less home runs then Fielder in 44 fewer at bats. That difference is actually very minuscule, with Fielder posting a HR every 11.46 AB vs. Howard’s HR every 11.26 AB. That would result in a different of just 1 HR if they both had the 573 AB Fielder posted (about 51 for Howard vs. Fielder’s 50). I’ll give them a push in HR’s, as there’s no reason to think that either player is going to be drastically different in ‘06. Howard probably has the potential to hit for greater power (he posted a HR every 10 AB in ‘06), but with what Fielder did in ‘07, you can’t dismiss him.

That leaves two categories, RBI and Average. Howard has the proven ability to drive in over 130 runs (136 in ‘07, 149 in ‘06). With Rollins and Utley filling the base paths in front of him, there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down this season. Fielder is a run producer for sure, but he’s just not at that level. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see Howard post 150 RBI’s, there’s really no chance of Fielder reaching that plateau.

While Howard did struggle in the average department last year, there’s a very easy explanation for it. Howard simply did not put the ball in play, striking out 37.6% of the time (199 K’s). If he posts a strikeout rate similar to that of ‘06 (31.2%), even if his BABIP drops to .322 (from .336), his average in ‘07 rises from .268 to .282. There’s no reason to think that his average is going to stay as low as it was, and I would expect it t
o rebound to over .300, like it was in ‘06. That certainly gives him an advantage.

When I break it down this way, the decision is a no brainer. While three categories will be a relative push, Howard has the definite advantage in the other two. That easily gives Howard the advantage in my opinion, and the player I’d rather have on my fantasy team.