Inspired by Lenny Melnick’s recent podcast, here are some speculations based solely on my “gut” feelings. Mileage may vary…
Lenny Melnick’s daily podcast is simply a must listen for any fantasy fan. Combining humor with cogent analysis is always a welcome antidote to the boredom of our daily work lives, so check it out.
Recently, Lenny ran two “gut feeling” pieces where he gave his “from the gut” speculations. I thought it was a very interesting item so decided to pirate his idea myself. I will give one item per team, and these are educated speculations that are not outside the realm of possibility (unlike my dream of being in a pillow fight with Elizabeth Mitchell, Evangeline Lilly and Yunjin Kim from Lost).
BAL: Luke Scott hits 30 HR and bats .300
BOS: Coco Crisp sticks around as they fail to deal him, and Ellsbury gets 300 ABs off the bench.
CHW: Mark Buehrle has an ERA close to 5.00
CLE: Sabathia and Carmona both wilt under tough 2007 workloads and the Tribe struggles.
DET: Miguel Cabrera=MVP
KC: Billy Butler is near the BA leaders through July and hits .320.
LAA: Ervin Santana becomes a legit number two starter.
MIN: Justin Morneau hits less than 20 HR.
NYY: Ian Kennedy outperforms Hughes and Chamberlain
OAK: Despite the trade of Joe Blanton, Oakland wins 80 games.
SEA: Felix Hernandez finishes in the top three in Cy Young voting.
TB: Evan Longoria flops and Matt Garza wins 15 games.
TEX: Ian Kinsler: 30 HR, 25 SB .290/.370/.530
TOR: Dustin McGowan emerges as a close second to Halladay. 15-8 3.40.
Tomorrow I will do the NL.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Ratdog // Mar 3, 2008 at 8:31 pm
I agree, Melnick’s “From the Gut” are the best! I actually agree with most of what you said…except (have to have an exception since I am replying to your post):
Scott: Anywhere else, I would be on board with this…but Baltimore!?! That is going to be one horrible team this year. His indicators all point to a vastly improved year this year…so even a 20 % reduction off of your gut feeling is a valuable tail end of the draft pick-up.
Kinsler: Aside from his SB’s improving (I attribute that to Ron Washington more than anything else), there really is no change in any measuring metric of his skill set. I know, gut calls and sabermetrics are mutually exclusive, but there should be at least something, anything, indicating a leap in skills…but I don’t see it. He still can’t hit RHP high and inside and there was a bad precedent set last year, i.e. dropping him in the batting order when facing a RHP. Based on splits, his best BA occurred in the 2 hole and 6th hole. If I were calling the shots, I would leave him in the two hole all year and see he can figure out RHP. My gut tells me no appreciable change from last year with the exception of possibly a little more power due to age (there’s always an exception
).
2 Anonymous // Mar 7, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Well, Kinsler should hit 25 homers just by virtue of playing a full season, which he has failed to do as of yet. Combine that with having a couple years’ experience under his belt, and that he’s entering his prime power years at 26 years old, and that may be all he needs to jump to 30 homers.
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