Here are some real longshot speculations on possible league leaders and awards.

I always thought it was interesting when the Freddy Sanchez’ of the world blossom out of nowhere. I always wonder whether anyone thought, even as a real longshot, that he could win a batting title. So, as a “just in case” here are some guys that I think are real longshots to win league categories. None of them are ridiculous, like saying Phil Hughes could win a Cy Young Award or other “nonsensical” selections; but they are guys that if things go right could bust out unexpectedly.

Batting Average: NL-Jeff Keppinger AL-Robinson Cano.

Keppinger makes as good contact as literally any player in organized baseball, and has a good eye. Most don’t know it because he was buried, but I think he is a legit .320 hitter right now. Cano is blossoming into a top notch player, and his 90th percentile PECOTA has him at .331. It was a close call between Cano and Billy Butler.

Home Runs: AL-Josh Hamilton NL-Chris Duncan

Hamilton has a 161 PX in Baseball HQ and if he is, in fact, the player that he seemed last year he could hit 40 HR. he did hit 19 in 300 AB last year. This is a longshot but one that could happen. Duncan has a clear shot at full time ABs, and has a PX of 153 with 30 HR projected right now.

Stolen Bases: AL-Freddie Bynum NL-Eugenio Velez

I am going by the view that 50 SB will be enough to get it done. The Orioles are starting Luis Hernandez who can do nothing. Bynum has the third highest SX score in the AL according to Baseball HQ and when Hernandez flops he could win a job, hit .240 and get 50 SB. Velez now looks like a hot sleeper pick but we have been on him here
since before Spring Training. He now has a clear path to a job and will hit enough to hold it in SF, so 50 SB is almost a forgone conclusion with his speed. The issue in the NL is that 50 won’t be enough to win, but he has a shot at 70 depending on how he hits.

ERA: AL-Zack Greinke NL-Chad Billingsley

Greinke is in his growth portion of his career, and had a 3.69 ERA last year while improving virtually every month in his base skills. A low 3s ERA is not out of the question and could be enough to get it done. There were a lot of contenders for this spot in the AL but Zack appears to me to be the longest of the longshots so why not? Similar comments apply for Billingsley, but he is farther advanced, and improved his skills in each month that he was a starter. Of all the picks on this list if I had to bet on one Billingsley would be the one.

Saves: AL-Al Reyes NL-Matt Capps

I have no faith in Percival, and the Rays look like contenders so they won’t hesitate to remove Percival from the job. Reyes can do the job, and will need some luck to win the saves title, but we are talking about longshots after all. Capps is unrecognized as one of the best unknown relievers in baseball, and has as much job security as any closer in the NL. That fact alone gives him a chance, and the Pirates should have a much improved pitching staff, which will at least keep games close, giving him, hopefully for this exercise, a lot of opportunities.

MVP: AL-Alex Rios NL-Troy Tulowitzki

The Jays look like wild card contenders this year, and if they truly are Rios will have to blossom. So the equation here is that the Jays knock off one of the big two in the AL East, are considered a surprise, and Rios steals an MVP award a la Justin Morneau. Tulowitzki is the entire package, and his tremendous defense is well recognized, so an improved hitting season plus those “intangibles” that the writers love could be enough to steal the award. Prorating his second half over a full season gives him 30 HR and a .300 average plus great defense at a key position for the defending NL champs.

Cy Young: AL- James Shields NL-Aaron Harang

Shields is no secret anymore, but if you look at his underlying skills they are literally as good as any other starter in the AL, with a 5.1 K/BB ratio last year. With a greatly improved team and, more importantly, a much better defense with Bartlett at SS, an ERA of 3.00 and 20 wins are not inconceivable. Harang is one of the most unknown pitchers great pitchers, and still has some upside. His K rate and K/BB are still improving and he is a consistent winner. He needs some help in the NL since there are so many good pitchers, but a Mets flop and that terrible Padres defense plus some regression by Peavy could do the trick.