The starlet of last weeks Take a Chance on Me is taking care of business in Spring Training. I still haven’t heard any experts clamoring over him yet, so he looks like a last round pick guy. This weeks Take a Chance on Me will look at two players whom are gathering slightly more hype, but are still hardly being considered in fantasy drafts this year.

This weeks Take a Chance on Me will look at a free agent re-tread and a Floridian cast-off.

Pedro Feliz
It will always make me laugh when in fantasy, a player is raised to the thrown after one solid season, but kicked to the curb after a single dud. That is something I look out for when I tab my sleepers and scrubs. I look out for players who have immense talent, but faltered in a season. I think try and figure out why that occurred.

Pedro Feliz is one of those players. While he does leave a lot to be desired, so do many of the players that will be selected at the end of ones draft. Here is a guy who while playing in one of the worst HR hitting ballparks (3 year average 23rd) to one of the best HR hitting ballparks (3 year average 3rd) - courtesy ESPN.com Ballpark Factors. These numbers are that much more impressive considering AT&T Park deflates home runs by 20 percent, whereas Citizens Bank Park inflates home runs by 30 percent (3 year averages).

Now, consider the findings David Gaasko of The Hardball Times on March 20th. Gaasko found that Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia inflated home runs per fly ball by 16 percent, whereas AT&T park deflated home runs per fly ball by 14 percent. I will assume that is approximately a 20 percent deviation (for mathematical sake).

Let us now take a look at Pedro Feliz’s batted ball data at FanGraphs. We can see here that Feliz’s home run per fly ball rate sat around 12 percent while playing for the Giants. A 20 percent increase should vault Feliz’s home run per fly ball up to about 14 percent. Given Pedro’s annual average of 200 fly balls per year, he can easily approach 28 home runs.

Let’s take this one step further by taking a look at the graphic to the left. In 2007 Feliz was about 70 points lower in ISO at home then he was on the road. Thus, it is safe to expect that Feliz in Philadelphia will be closer to his road power figures then that of his home ones.

The projection systems are not being kind to Feliz, but that doesn’t worry me. It appears as though everyone is projecting a platoon or an injury to Feliz. It also seems as if the projection systems are assuming Feliz is still playing in San Francisco. That said, Feliz has been relatively durable since becoming a full time player and has all but locked up the everyday job at the hot corner in Philadelphia.

Conservatively, I will set the bar for Feliz at 25HR, 75 runs, 85 RBIs and a .265 batting average. According to ESPN Feliz is being drafted with the 223rd pick and has been taken in fewer then 20 percent of the leagues. Alex Gordon and Adrian Beltre are being taken over 100 picks ahead of Feliz. I’m not sure I would promote this thinking, thus, Take a Chance on Pedro Feliz in round 19 using your 8/10th picks on superior talents like Felix Hernandez or Scott Kazmir.

Elijah Dukes
I personally do not think there is a player in Major League Baseball with more raw talent then Elijah Dukes. Here is a player who was given away because of his attitude off of the field. I understand wanting to change the dynamics of a team, but as fans, we need to stop worrying about what a player is doing with their spare time and focus on what they are doing on the field. Whether or not a player “Maked it Rain” when they are at a strip club or they are a “Good Family Man” should be irrelevant. Think about the last time you were at a restaurant, did you eat your steak and say, “This tastes extra good because I hear the Sheff is a blood donor”? Or did you simply enjoy your meal for what it was, food. Similarly, professional athletes are entertainers, not role models. Hell, how can any one of us model our lives after someone who we don’t even come close to resembling.

Anyways, enough of my rant. Dukes, as mentioned, has a boat load of talent. The kid hit 10 bombs in under 200 at bats and displayed an outstanding strikeout to walk ratio. While simply prorating his numbers to 600 at bats is a senseless and simplistic method, could you imagine would could have been?

It appears as though 2008 will be Dukes’ coming out party. While this will be far from the best season of his career, 2008 will be the last year in which Dukes goes undrafted in many mixed leagues. With Wily Mo Pena shelved for what Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus is suggesting will be well into May and possibly well beyond. When Pena returns, if Dukes is tearing the cover off the ball as he is capable of doing and Meat Hook is taking up at bats in the outfield, I find it hard to believe the Nats will slide Pena right into the starting lineup.

That said, Dukes will log at least full time at bats well into June if not well beyond dependent on his performance and attitude.

What to expect from Dukes? I’m putting him in as another 25 home run threat with a low average and decent RBIs and Runs. The projection systems courtesy of FanGraphs on average has Dukes finishing with 250 at bats and 10 home runs. Not spectacular totals, but also ones that deviate from what Dukes accomplished as a rookie in 2007. With a sustainable home run per fly ball rate and an outstanding fly ball percentage and considering the projection systems expect Dukes to substantially improve his strikeout percentage, it is safe to say the projections are on the conservative side.

Let’s take a quick look at a couple outfielders who are being drafted instead of Dukes. Chris Duncan and Josh Willingham. Both of whom can be counted on for a 260 average and about 25 home runs, expecting much else out of them would be to make a massive mistake. The projection systems agree with this sentiment, thus giving credibility to my claim.

Another thing to consider is that Dukes is so young and so talented that he could easily exceed his projections. However, he also has enough off field issues that may negatively affect his performance enough to slide him out of the starting lineup. That being said, we are talking about a player whom can be had with the last pick or two in your draft. The potential reward will outweigh the risk by an immeasurable amount. Take a Chance on Elijah Dukes.

Bran
don Heikoop writes for Baseball Digest Daily as well as his personal blog The Outsiders Look at the Insides of Baseball.

If you have a question or a player you would like Brandon to take a look at, send him an email at bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com