A new writer joins the Generals.

Take a Chance on Me

Writing an article for Fantasy Baseball is both challenging and fun. It is challenging, because there are so many opinions and ideas out there, that as an author writing a unique and interesting piece is vital. That is, when picking a sleeper or strategy the author needs to spend equal energy dissecting their rationale in picking said player, ensuring that they explain their reasoning in a logical and factual manner, but also, the author needs to ensure they aren’t simply pumping up the same players that any Joe-Fantasy Leaguer wouldn’t pick. In doing so, the author also needs to ensure that this player has a legitimate shot at ‘breaking out’ or being extraordinarily undervalued.

Predicting who will do so is what I intend to contribute to The Fantasy Generals on a weekly basis. I will give advice on players to consider pre-draft as well as players whom I feel will be strong candidates post draft (i.e. during the season). Simply put, I will be your panic button. If you are at the draft and are worried about not having enough depth or upside, or during the season when a bunch of underachieving or injuries threaten to ruin baseball as you know it.

In my first installment of Take a Chance on Me I will present two players whom I strongly suggest taking with one of your last couple of picks. Keep in mind, I am not suggesting that ones entire draft should revolve around these players, rather, that I feel these players will either breakout or net an outstanding gain.

Manny Parra (Starting Pitcher)

There’s just something about lefthanders the way there’s something about Michael Bolton to Office Space’s Bob Slydell. In the way he “Celebrates the entire [Michael Bolton] collection”; I drool over a young lefty with stuff. With a strong minor league resume, Parra has been hindered in his development with injuries however was given a shot at the show in 2007 and displayed what made him a top prospect in the eyes of many.

Entering this season, John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote that Parra is a player “who needs more attention” while ranking the 25 year old as a B+ prospect, the second best in the Brewers system.

Additionally, Parra ranks as the Brewers #2 prospect in Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball Prospectus rankings and is given the following report:

The Good: Parra has excellent stuff for a left-hander, beginning with a 90-93 mph fastball that can touch 94-95 and features late, explosive life. He also throws an 88-92 mph two-seamer, and both his curve and changeup rank as a tick above average due to his command. He’s an aggressive type who pitches with reckless abandon, and the team has always been impressed with his attitude as he worked through his injuries.
The Bad: Parra’s history of elbow and shoulder problems is considerable, so his long-term health is still a bit of a concern, and his mechanics are far from ideal. He needs to mix his pitches up more effectively, and can be overly reliant on his fastball at times.

Overall, a fairly strong report and one that gives me confidence along with the numbers he has posted throughout his professional career. Check out this video as evidence of the kind of stuff Parra brings to the table.

The young lefty-like many young pitchers-will presumably struggle at times and his job with the Brewers is currently in question. Although he is certainly guaranteed a job as the Brewers have an extremely deep rotation, if he is coming out of the bullpen he will obviously have less value. However, as a starter, I feel as though he has #3 talent (in fantasy terms). As a pitcher who will go undrafted more often then not this is a late-round gamble one can afford to take.

That said I am expecting the following from Parra:
3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 14 wins, 168 strikeouts in 175 innings pitched.
Essentially, you are looking at what Ian Snell did in 2007 with even less hype.

Keep an eye on Parra during Spring Training to see if he is one of the Brewers starting five. Currently he has the inside edge, but a lot can happen in the next couple of weeks.

Ty Wigginton (First/Second/Third Base)

I feel Wigginton is beginning to get some of the credit he deserves, however he is still being greatly undervalued. According to ESPN’s draft ranks, Wigginton is going 60+ picks after Jeff Kent. Consider that free projection systems at Fan Graphs have Wigginton hitting between 20 and 24 home runs with an average between .269 and .275 and Kent at 14 to 22 home runs with an average between .268 and .290. This discrepancy should NOT be worth 60 spots in the draft.

Let us also consider a player whom projects at having a closer average to Wigginton. Ian Kinsler, whom has a higher upside, it’s doubtful that he suddenly develops into a bona fide slugger. If you believe this is going to happen in 2008, bump him way up your draft charts. However, if you are thinking in the same manner as most projection systems, why draft him 120 picks higher then Wigginton?

That said, while Wigginton is not going to pile up the RBIs batting in the lower third of the Houston lineup, he will be an everyday player who can provide a solid offensive contribution at an outstanding value.

Brandon Heikoop writes for Baseball Digest Daily as well as his personal blog The Outsiders Look at the Insides of Baseball.

If you have a question or a player you would like Brandon to take a look at, send him an email at bheikoop@baseballdigestdaily.com