A friend asked me what I though of him and here is what I told him–stay away!

One of my friends has his league draft tonight and asked me what he should do with the catcher position. After we chatted about it we came to Geovany Soto and what I thought of him for 2008. Given his draft position and the hype there is no way he will ever end up on my team, and if you draft him as a top ten catcher I think it is an error.

There are so many negatives here:

1. 40% H rate for the season.
2. Manager that chews up catchers.
3. No power in minors previously. Baseball HQ’s PX metric had his power the last three seasons before 2007 at 73, 58, 75, all well below the normalized average of 100.
4. 21% Hr/FB rate in 2007, norm is 10% or so, though each player will have their own rate. Needless to say, Soto is nowhere near the real 21% level.
5. 37% H rate in the majors.
6. Hits FAR too many groundballs. In 2006 he had a 60% GB rate, and in 2007 in AAA it was 42% and he hit more GB than FB.

On the plus side? Even given the above, a regression to something like 12 HR and a .270 average would still be very solid for a catcher. Other than that I don’t see that many items for the plus side of the ledger. His power and BA last year were both mirages by any definition, and though it is possible that no regression will be forthcoming simply because I am wrong about him and don’t know some vital details I wouldn’t take him before the 20th round.