Every year you read the exact same threads on the various fantasy baseball message boards. It goes something like this:

Should I bench [insert Top 5 Rounder who has started off cold] for [insert Bottom 5 Rounder or free agent addition who has started off hot]? I know it’s early, but Top 5 Rounder looks lost and Bottom 5 Rounder has been raking while sitting on my bench.

In a weekly transaction league, the answer is “NO!!!!!” In a daily transaction league, the answer is more like “no”. It should be obvious why this would be a terrible idea in a weekly league. You don’t want to be “that guy” who benched David Ortiz or Magglio the week he hits .450 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs. In a daily league, at least you will only lose out on 1 game worth of stats, so the potential damage is lessened.

Everyone seems to believe that it’s as easy as pie to time hot and cold streaks, simply sticking Cold Top 5 Rounder (CT5R) on the bench, waiting for him to heat up, and then plugging him back into your lineup after he gets a mental break on your reserve list. It sounds effortless in theory, but in practice, not so much. What it comes down to is, when do you determine CT5R has “heated up”? Is it after the first game he homers? After a 3-4 game? After a 3-day span where he hits .400+? After a 1 week span where he hits 3+ HRs? By the time you decide that yes, CT5R has heated up, you’ve just lost out on several games of excellent stats. Even if you have a rule as to what defines the beginning of a hot streak, what data do you have to support that CT5R does indeed go on a hot streak once he performs in the way you define as the beginning of a hot streak?

On the other side, Hot Bottom 5 Rounder (HB5R) isn’t nearly as good as CT5R, which is why you got him many rounds later, or cheaper in your auction. Because he’s clearly inferior, expecting him to perform better in week 3 solely because he did so in weeks 1 and 2 is just a poor percentage play. Every player has great weeks and terrible weeks throughout the season, but it’s magnified at this time of year since the current stats are all we have to look at. Back to the HB5R, how long does it take before you even realize the player is hot? Surely one game with a homer isn’t a hot streak, so by the time you even notice “daaamn, my 22nd rounder is on fire, I better activate him”, he’s probably all set to regress back to his career levels that allowed you to draft him so late in the first place.

I’ve written an article before discussing the similarities between fantasy baseball and the stock market, and the above reminds me very much of momentum investors. It’s kind of like seeing a stock go up 5 days in a row, and then jumping in, or selling a stock after it has fallen 5 days in a row. In fact, there has been research done that was published on the Yahoo! Finance home page some time ago that showed that stocks that fell for 5 straight days show the biggest gain on Day 6, while stocks that have risen for 5 straight days have either risen the least on Day 6, or actually dropped, I can’t remember.

What I haven’t mentioned yet is the exceptions to the rule (there are always exceptions to every rule). Obviously, if you are certain that your CT5R is playing through an injury, this might be a reason to bench him as there is a clear explanation for his underperformance and no guarantee he’ll bounce back to his projected level, assuming the injury continues to plague him. But again you have to determine if a 70%, David Ortiz, for example, is still better than a 100% Mike Jacobs. The 2nd, and more important exception, is when the underlying skills show a clear regression/improvement in skills. Not only are Andruw Jones’ surface stats atrocious, but his strikeouts are through the roof and he’s hitting an astronomical 69% of his balls in play on the ground, while showing no power (only 1 double and 0 HRs in 40 ABs). He’s also losing playing time. This is an example of a player who beginning last year, and for whatever reason, has suddenly dropped off the map, and even the underlying metrics agree that it isn’t just bad luck, but a complete loss of skill.

So before benching your CT5R for an HB5R, make sure the CT5R isn’t just suffering from bad luck, because that will reverse at any moment. Similarly, make sure your HB5R who you’re itching to activate isn’t just benefitting from good luck, as will mostly be the case, because that will also reverse at any moment. As always, if you’d like to hear my take on any CT5R/HB5R pairing you’re thinking of making the switch with, feel free to leave a comment or send me an e-mail with the details.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.