There is much crowing and gnashing of teeth about fast and slow starts, even in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. One would think that experts would know better! Here are three examples of being seduced by the short term.

I think I woke up on the wrong side of the bed today, no doubt because I didn’t get to see much of Elizabeth Mitchell last night on Lost.  So this is as close to a rant as I will do in my posts. I am getting annoyed at all of the nonsense I am reading and hearing about fast starts as owners, even experts, simply do not see what is there to be seen.

It is my sad duty to report for now that my results have been subpar in the FBSEL.  Hoping to be a strong contender, so far the Generals are above .500 but disappointing. Why? It is simply a slow start. Other teams are off to fast starts, and are crowing about their success as if one can easily extrapolate from three weeks to 24.

This is a pet peeve of course and I have written quite a few articles on this topic, not the least of which was the discussion of Commitment and Planning.  It is truly the mark of a less skilled owner to not be able to distinguish between the real and the seductive, and the fantasy General must not succumb to this trap.

It is ruthless objectivity that must be your friend. Case in point: Brandon Lyon, Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano, all of whom have been discussed by the experts.

An owner in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League is a huge fan of Jacoby Ellsbury, and recently was touting the fact that Ellsbury is now a “fantasy star.” Another is a huge fan of Brandon Lyon and believes he will be a top notch closer this year, both over my own cavil. Both owners are riding high so far, as Ellsbury has been a surprise and has shown unexpected pop, and Lyon has been pitching like a lion in the last week. In fact, my team is playing the team that owns Brandon Lyon this week and as a result Lyon is hoisting me on my own petard. Apparently word got out to him of my badmouthing.  No wonder I am cranky today.

Let’s look first at Lyon. Last year he had an actual ERA of 2.68 but an expected ERA of 4.94 and his base skills were far below those that are generally expected of a closer, with 4.9 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. To put it bluntly he was lucky. This year, he also has a high xERA of 4.36. So what we have here is a pitcher who has yet to have his regression to his mean.

It is easy to seduce oneself that this regression will not occur. There are plenty of old crusty maxims that substitute for hard fact, such as “all it takes is opportunity” when dealing with closers. It is easy to hide behind these maxims, or worse yet to hide behind superficial analysis that ignores the downside. One could, in Lyon’s case, point to his 10 K and one BB and conclude that he is not the same pitcher as last year. Many owners do this every single day.

Turning to Jacoby, Ellsbury has three homeruns in 62 AB so far this year, a surprising total. His owner had optimistically projected him for 12-15 homeruns and so far it looks like he may be right!  Sadly for him though this is highly doubtful. Ellsbury is a ground ball hitter and that has not changed. So far he is hitting 51% of his balls on the ground, a good number for his batting average but a bad number for anyone who is hoping for double digit homeruns. He has hit only 18 fly balls this season but out of them has three homeruns. There is no way this holds up.

The case of Cano is even more annoying.  Cano has arguably been one of the unluckiest regulars in baseball. He has a 17% hit rate, leading to a .159 batting average. On a radio show yesterday I heard someone say that Cano “wasn’t seeing the ball.” This is hogwash.  As most people do, analysts try to explain things through the prism of their own knowledge rather than try to expand their knowledge to new areas, as if one’s knowledge at a given point in time is all you ever need.

It rankles me when I hear baseball people say things like “he is tipping his pitches,” or “he is not seeing the ball.”  Simply put, these guys do not understand regression to the mean, or statistics or chance, which illuminate the true explanation.  Cano is unlucky, Lyon is lucky. Lyon isn’t “mentally prepared to handle the ninth” and Cano is “seeing the ball” just fine.  Cano’s contact rate, BB rate and BB/K ratio are all fine and exactly at his norms.  He is “seeing the ball” well enough to make 90% contact! 

Don’t fall into the quicksand of believing what you see and hear without delving deeply into the question. Far better to do some analysis that to parrot the fact that “he isn’t seeing the ball.” Ugh.