Who should you take with the number one priority?

Update: After his first start what I say below goes double!!

I have received multiple requests on this issue so here is my opinion: It is Cueto. But it does depend on what your goals are.

If you are in a one year league or a league where you think you can win this year then Cueto should be the choice. He is in the majors with a solid shot at keeping the job all year. That alone almost makes it an easy decision; Kershaw would not be the first pitcher to be highly touted and not pass his tests at higher levels. The mere fact that Cueto has already made it to the majors is a vitally important difference no matter what you think of Kershaw.

Another factor: as great as Kershaw is, he has control problems. In 2007 he had 67 BB in 122 IP in High A and AA. Great stuff at his age with control problems does not equal a major league ready pitcher. Tons of strikeouts, yes, but with control problems it is difficult to see him coming up and being successful even in a year. He needs to cut down those walks quite a bit.

I would prefer Kershaw in a long term keeper league where I could sit on him until 2010. In ALL other instances I would prefer Cueto (and even in the long term league it is very close). My usual rule of thumb is that as long as guys are roughly equal you should usually select the guy who is at a higher level. Not only has he passed a tougher test, the fact that he is closer to the majors means he is ready to help sooner and ,more importantly, has greater trade value because he can theoretically help sooner.

Baseball HQ projects Cueto at 15-8 with a 4.01 ERA. I will take that or anything close to that above a pitcher who has yet to pass a full season at AA and who walks 4.5 batters per nine every time. I don’t even think it is that close.