A drastic decision is needed midweek for the Generals in the FBSEL expert league. 

So far this week the Generals are getting hammered by Mock Draft Central in the FBS expert league.  Sadly, it is a rout, as my hitters are not hitting, with a .222 average and no steals and only 3 HR.  The pitching is poor this week also; Soriano is hurt, I have an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.50 versus an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.900 for MDC.

The “ace” up my sleeve?  Well, I don’t have one, though I am going to activate Shaun Marcum today against the A’s.  One decent start will put me right back in there for ERA and WHIP this week, and then I just have to hope my hitters start hitting. Magglio Ordonez is still looking for his first HR, Crawford is batting .167 on the year and if they start hitting this week then I still have a good chance of catching up.

It must be noted though that whether I beat MDC overall is irrelevant; what I need to do is get back as many categories as I can, since even a 6-4 loss is far better than a 1-7-2 loss (the current state). I should have known I was in trouble when even my radio show co-host Todd “The True Guru” Farino picked me to win; his success rate in prognostication is about the same as Nostradamus’.

The A’s offense is pretty weak with most of their regulars hitting .250 or worse, and Buck, Ellis and Barton (their top three) hitting .129, .250 and .219 respectively. Marcum is one of my sleeper picks this year and looked good in his first outing with a .57 WHIP and 3.86 ERA.

This raises an interesting strategical point, which is that if you need to take a risk it is far better in general to take it earlier rather than later. This is because failure will allow you to possibly come back later on. In general most people wait until the last minute to take a risk in sports. In almost any close basketball game you will hear the announcers say “you don’t need a three here” or something to that effect, or the football team waits to go for two. That strategy is almost certainly wrong.

If you wait until the last minute you are left to chance and have no control. Let’s look at it this way: lets assume Marcum has a 35% chance of a disaster. If I wait until Sunday there is no guarantee that a drastic move will even be viable so lets assume there is a 20% chance that if I wait I have no chance at all since I will be too far behind.

So if I wait, 20% of the time I lose, and 35% of the time that Marcum pitches he pitches a disaster. If I lose every disaster, that is a 48% chance of a loss (.20 + .35(.80)) and a 52% chance of winning. Of course I won’t lose every disaster if I don’t wait, but if I wait until Sunday and use a starter with a similar 35% split I will lose in almost every disaster scenario.

That disaster percentage may be too high, it could be as low as 20% or less. But the 35% chance is close to a break even point, so if I think the chance is far less than 35% (and I do) it is an even stronger argument for not waiting and starting Marcum today. So let’s assume that the 35% chance is the break even point. If I think the chance of a disaster is 27% or less (8% difference or half of 48%-32%-the 32% number comes in below) then I gain by starting him now.

If I start Marcum today let’s assume that if he pitches a gem or average game I will win ERA and WHIP 50% of the time. This is not unrealistic at all and may even be low, since I can rest all of my relievers using day to day transactions, so if I get ahead on these two categories today I will be hard pressed to lose them unless MDC gets 4 excellent starts out of the likes of Gil Meche and Franklin Morales. But let’s take the 50% number.

So then the chances of me winning just by starting Marcum today are (.65 x .50) or 32.5% (see above). That doesnt mean I lose of course the remainder of the time, only that I can almost lock up a victory one third of the time. This is a big consideration.

If he pitches a disaster OR just pitches enough that he makes no difference then I need only a 16% chance of a comeback during the remainder of the week to make it a good play.  To put it another way, will I win one time in six if he either pitches a disaster or pitches just OK so that he essentially makes little difference?

It should be obvious that I will win far more than one time in six. Just on the comeback chance alone, his 35% chance of a disaster need be overcome less than half the time to get to that 16% and that assumes that I lose every time he pitches an outing that makes no difference (something like 6 IP 3 ER and 8 baserunners).

Clearly then it is a FAR better strategy to move early and take the risk today; I think he has a low probability of disaster and even if he does I need only come back less than 1/3 of the time (since the 16% is 8% off the chance of loss by waiting and 8% additional chance of comeback) to make it a good play. My overall chance of winning is much higher by making an early move rather than a later one. My estimates of the actual percentages may be off, but even making rough estimates in situations like this can be very instructive.

I hope this makes sense.