Johan Santana After Giving Up A Two-Run HR
A matchup of two teams that could not be more diametrically opposed.
This matchup is an excellent illustration of my theory on fractional/marginal gains during individual draft rounds. The fact is that not one of his starters and not one of my relievers is likely to have any marginal value this week. He is going to pound me into oblivion in W and K given that he has Santana, Webb, Peavy et al. On closers, I have my solid four closers and MDC has only Soria, Gagne and Guardado as relievers. So the pitching value of each individual pitcher may as well be zero for this particular matchup compared to his counterpart on the other team.
Given how good his starters are it may be a dogfight for ERA and WHIP so it may be interesting to see how it all plays out during the week, and it is certainly possible that daily transactions may make a big difference. I have four starts by Snell and Blanton so I have a good opportunity to fend off any attempt to stockpile relievers.
So it comes down to how good his top three will be versus my stable of top quality LIMA set up men.
On offense I think the Generals have a solid edge, since the MDC outfield is weak compared to the Generals’. However, we will likely lose SB for sure, which means that MDC virtually has three categories in their hip pocket. The Generals have HR, RBI and SV as likely wrapped up categories.
This should be a very close week and will likely come down to the last day unless MDC’s speedy offensive guys struggle in BA, giving him less steals and another losing category (BA). It should be a hell of a week. My co-hosts gave MDC the number two rating overall so they should be considered a slight favorite to win this week, and if things go as planned it is likely to be at worst a 6-4 decision in either direction.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Steve // Apr 6, 2008 at 9:10 am
Patrick - assume you would prefer not to use you starters if you can avoid it.
Would your strategy to wait to see if your opponent stocks up on relievers before throwing your starters in there?
2 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 6, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Steve, that is exactly right. As an aside I posted this same article in the Expert League blog, so that he knows what I am thinking thereby ensuring that he will NOT try to get extra relievers! A little bit of higher level strategy.
3 Steve // Apr 7, 2008 at 3:27 am
Cunning! Just thought I would let you know that my season of using your relievers-only strategy has got off to a successful start - just!
Had a 6-5-1 win, thanks to Broxton getting a win for the Dodgers today (my opponent hardly drafted any starters and hasn’t yet rectified the situation), although I obviously can’t expect to take wins every week! I won Holds and Saves also. ERA was 2.20 and WHIP 0.80, this includes Street’s horror outing in Japan - think my guys only gave up one other earned run between them.
The margin of victory might have been bigger, but my hitting was terrible - just 3 HR and 17 RBI with Hawpe (.211), Posada (.143) and Crawford (.174) the main offenders). Still I have a good hitting team so I’m sure it will come around. How did your first week go?
4 Steve // Apr 7, 2008 at 3:31 am
Cunning! Just thought I would let you know that my season of using your relievers-only strategy has got off to a successful start - just!
Had a 6-5-1 win, thanks to Broxton getting a win for the Dodgers today (my opponent hardly drafted any starters and hasn’t yet rectified the situation), although I obviously can’t expect to take wins every week! I won Holds and Saves also. ERA was 2.20 and WHIP 0.80, this includes Street’s horror outing in Japan - think my guys only gave up one other earned run between them.
The margin of victory might have been bigger, but my hitting was terrible - just 3 HR and 17 RBI with Hawpe (.211), Posada (.143) and Crawford (.174) the main offenders). Still I have a good hitting team so I’m sure it will come around. How did your first week go?
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