It’s time for the hitters to face the truth as I look at the leaders and laggards of BABIP.

Hitter BABIP differs from Pitcher BABIP in that hitters don’t regress toward a league average. It has been found that hitters generally have a true skill range for their BABIP in which the metric will regress to each season. Therefore, a hitter’s current BABIP must be compared to the BABIPs he’s posted in his career. As a result, I found it useful to include the hitter’s career BABIP in the stat tables below, along with what I calculated his batting average would be if the hitter’s current season BABIP matched his career BABIP.

Since it’s so early in the season, obviously we all know the leaders won’t maintain such a high average, and the laggards won’t continue to suffer with such a low average, so I think looking at the xAVG column is most worthwhile. This xAVG metric differs than what Baseball HQ defines it as since they look at Power and Speed Index and other factors to determine an expected BABIP. I’m simply going to be using career BABIP for this exercise as it should work well enough.

One caveat though: Because I’m using career BABIP, older players who have seen a drop-off in this metric the last couple of years might have higher xAVGs in my tables than they should, and younger players who have improved their BABIPs recently might have lower xAVGs than I show.

 
Luke Scott was a popular sleeper pick in the pre-season and so far he’s making owners who drafted him late look pretty good. He has essentially cut his strikeout rate in half, but looking at his history, I’m not so sure how long that could last. He does only have 1 HR, but already 7 doubles in only 44 ABs, so the HRs should come. If any part of his increased contact rate is for real, he might even outperform expectations from those who labeled him a sleeper.

Another popular sleeper, Nate McLouth, saw his draft value held down due to questions about playing time. Surprisingly, the Pirates made the right decision for a change. The only knock on McLouth’s fantasy prospects was his batting average expectation, as he’s only a career .260 hitter. But like Scott, he has also dramatically improved his contact rate, and again, I’m not sure how long this could last since it could just be a small sample size issue. Either way, he’s a lock to provide substantial profit to those owners smart enough to take the risk that he wouldn’t win the full-time job (unfortunately, I was not one of those owners).

Man, those Upton boys sure could hit. Most people thought Justin wasn’t quite ready yet to enjoy success at the major league level this season, but apparently he never got the memo. He already has 5 HRs in just 54 ABs, so he’s showing a lot more power than projected at just 20 years old. Obviously he won’t continue on that HR pace, but if he possesses the same skill to consistently post very high BABIPs that his brother seems to, then that .321 career number is going to be low, and the .318 xAVG will also be low.

 
Even with a normalized BABIP, Ortiz would still only be hitting .253. His power is way down with only 1 HR and 0 doubles in 53 ABs, which is the main culprit of the low xAVG. I’ve read enough reports saying that his hitting mechanics have changed, probably to compensate for his knee, to lead me to believe that this is clearly injury related, and not just a regular early season slump. Players never seem to admit when they are injured, but I wonder if a DL stay will help any. You got to ride it out if you own him and hope whatever is plaguing him gets fixed. As a non-owner, however, I wouldn’t be trying to buy low just yet, unless of course you can convince his owner that Mike Jacobs is actually the next David Ortiz.

Interesting to see a .311 xAVG for Ramon Hernandez, who was a nice rebound sleeper this year. Staying with the increased contact rate theme that we saw with some of the Leaders, Hernandez has also cut down on his strikeouts so far this year, K’ing at less than half the rate he did last season. He already has 2 HRs in 42 ABs after just 9 in 364 ABs in 2007. I think he makes for an excellent buy low candidate, and it shouldn’t be too difficult at all to acquire him, if he hasn’t already been dropped in shallow 1 catcher mixed leagues.

Anyone else as confused as I am to see Corey Patterson with a .353 xAVG? It seems like his actual .239 average is exactly what should be expected, but apparently that’s not the case this season. As if I haven’t mentioned it enough, Patterson is yet another member of the increased contact rate club. After cutting down on his strikeouts for 3 straight years already, he’s on his way to making it a 4th year, with only 3 K’s in 46 ABs. He also has 4 HRs already, so whatever Dusty Baker is doing over there with him in Cinci appears to be working. As long as he’s hitting like this, Jay Bruce won’t be joining the big league club any time soon.

I have decided not to include a leaders and laggards article on Hitter HR/F, as this is another stat that must be compared to the hitter’s career, and doesn’t regress to the league average. It’s therefore too difficult for me to pin down which hitters are dramatically outperforming or underperforming reasonable HR/F expectations and are consequently due for regression or improvement, aside from just sorting by HRs and checking everyone’s stats. But if you have a player who’s on a HR binge or not seeing any balls leave the park, let me know and I’ll take a look at the player, maybe even making it into an article.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.