After almost 2 weeks, I’m back with the 2nd edition of the Leaders & Laggards of Pitcher BABIP. I realized that doing these articles weekly would be a waste as pitchers may have only had 1 start since, so spacing them out a little more allows for more changes in the data. If you missed the introductory article, check it out here. Here we go…

 
If any readers out there have jumped on the Gavin Floyd bandwagon, you may now safely jump off, as you could clearly see how he’s managed that 1.40 ERA. The K/9 is atrocious, the BB/9 isn’t good, and he’s giving up fly balls like there’s no tomorrow. This is the exact opposite of a skill set you want to own. His xFIP is a scary 5.43! So no, his ERA is not for real or a sign of the breakout he was supposed to have years ago. I’d even prefer an empty roster spot over him.

Those of you who have sold high on Cueto might feel vindicated after seeing his name on this list. However, after his 2nd start against the Brewers that was still quite good, it might take a little longer for the league to adjust than conventional wisdom would suggest for a rookie pitcher. In fact, if you look at the entire set of luck metrics, he’s actually experienced some bad luck on the whole. His xFIP is actually a sparkling 2.86. Also, I just can’t bring myself to sell high on a kid with a 29/3 K/BB ratio. Of course, if I learn that I could get a $20+ hitter in return, I might have to jump on it, but I’m not actively shopping him at the moment. The strikeouts will most certainly drop off and the walks seemingly have to rise, but so far there have been no signs to believe he’ll finish the season with an ERA over 4.

Look at that last name in red, it’s Micah Owings! I wrote a short bit about him in my last Razzball article, so I won’t repeat what I said, but I’m still not a believer. And what ever happened to that sore shoulder he was experiencing during Spring Training? Guess that was nothing.

 
I’ll start with Sabathia and Oswalt. Even after the good starts by these 2, they are still apparently suffering from some bad luck. I think Oswalt will be fine, but Sabathia isn’t out of the woods yet, as there was a good possible explanation for his poor start. Last night’s dominant start did come against the Royals, so let’s see what he does next time out against the Yanks. 

Next is a pair of Pirates. Ian Snell continues to increase his skills, this time by dropping his BB/9 below 2, which continues his trend of reducing walks, after 3 straight years of improvement. His xFIP of 3.42 shows what he could do if the Pirates defense, who currently rank last in all of baseball in DER (the team defense version of BABIP for pitchers), begins to play better. He doesn’t have a big name, so he’s an excellent buy right now, especially if his next start is poor and his owner asks himself why a Pirates pitcher is taking up space on his roster.

Pirate #2 is Paul Maholm. Always posting a GB% in the low-to-mid 50’s with a solid walk rate, this year he has upped his K/9 to 8 after several seasons stuck in the 5-6 range. It doesn’t seem like he’s doing much differently on the mound judging by his FanGraphs profile, so I’m not sure how long that increased strikeout rate will last. His xFIP sits at 3.67, so he is also being victimized by the terrible Pirates defense. I’m guessing the loss of Jack Wilson has a lot to do with the poor D. Anyway, Maholm probably won’t be worth more than a couple of bucks in shallow mixed leagues, but he does make for a nice option with some upside in NL-Only leagues.

If you want my commentary on any of the other players on the lists above who I didn’t highlight, let me know.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.