I’m not one to overreact to slow starts and consider myself one of the most patient owners one can be, sometimes to my detriment. I don’t own Sabathia in any leagues, so my opinion is unbiased. I also projected him for similar stats as everyone else, so my expectations weren’t any higher/lower than the consensus. With that said, here are my thoughts on him…
Sabathia’s first 2 starts would concern me if I were an owner, or someone maybe looking to buy low, if that could even be accomplished after only 2 starts. Of course the usual caveat applies, that it’s only been 2 starts. But what’s scary is the 4 walks in 5 1/3 innings today, which followed 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings in his first start, leaving him with 7 walks in 10 2/3 innings on the season. This follows a wild 2007 postseason where he walked 13 batters in just 15 1/3 innings. He did only walk 4 batters in 22 spring innings, for whatever that’s worth. But this is a guy who only walked 1.4 batters per 9 innings last year and has demonstrated very good control the last couple of years.
It has been noted on this site and some other sites that Sabathia has a lot of mileage on his arm and threw 49 more innings last year than in 2006, and the first season over 200 in his career. Add in his postseason innings, and he becomes a very possibly breakdown candidate.
So what should an owner do? Don’t panic and sell low. But if you get an offer that you’d consider pretty close to fair in the pre-season, I probably wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. I might even try just trading him straight up for another pitcher worth about the same, like a Brandon Webb. Otherwise, monitor him closely. Another start or two with poor control might mean it’s time to start shopping him around aggressively, and hopefully he hasn’t damaged his value too much by then.
As always, feel free to email me or comment for any specific advice for your league regarding Sabathia.
Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Brandon Heikoop // Apr 6, 2008 at 12:04 am
Keep in mind who Sabathia was playing.
First, the ChiSox while aggressive at the plate have players who do take walks at a very solid rate (namely Swisher and Thome). Although neither of those two walked it is also obvious that Sabathia was far from wild on this occasion as he threw 66 of 100 pitches for strikes.
In 2007 Sabathia had a 3.04 BB/9 ratio against the Chi Sox, it was similarly close at 2.97 in 2006 and 4.03 in 2005. In other words, Chicago seems to have a pretty solid approach against Sabathia as a team.
Second, the Athletics. You know the team that preaches patience at the plate through the system. This is also coincidently CC’s hometown team and a place where Sabathia has regularly been hit hard throughout his major league career-entering today he had a 7.17 ERA at McAffee in 7 career starts, more specifically it was 6.75 in 2006 and 8.10 in 2007 (one start each).
While the four walks are somewhat of a concern, the fact that he tossed 61 of 107 pitches for strikes is a nice rate (57% v. 2007 rate of 66%).
However, this is not to say that there is no concern with the big fella, because for me, as a fantasy owner of Carsten’s AND an Indians fan, there is.
Today, CC had 3 of 6 hits allowed go for XBH. In his first start, 4 of 6. So far, that is 7 in 2 starts.
In all of 2007 Carsten’s allowed 81. And in 2006, 50 (that can’t be right).
So either Carsten’s has been unlucky (if a pitcher has no control over what happens once the ball is put into play, they have no control over whether the ball is hit for a single, double or triple) or there is something bigger wrong here.
Given his inability to keep the ball down, I am going to assert that he is simply going through that Spring fatigue that hits a lot of pitchers.
2 Mike Podhorzer // Apr 6, 2008 at 1:02 am
Nice addition Brandon. The opponents I left out just because that could be lumped in with the small sample size of just 2 games.
3 Kevin // Apr 6, 2008 at 3:42 am
I doubt you will be able to pull off a deal for another pitcher like a Brandon Webb. Why would the Webb owner want to make that deal?
I think the Sabathia owner would be better off waiting for a decent outing and trading him to an owner who is heavy in offense and a little weak at pitching.
4 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 6, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Mike, you wont get Webb for Sabathia, so the question is how far down do you go before you are no longer willing to trade him? Snell? Kazmir? Francis?
5 Mike Podhorzer // Apr 7, 2008 at 12:36 am
Good questions. I guess I didn’t think that far ahead and I hate to be advising owners to sell Sabathia after only 2 outings.
But, I think the best way of putting it is if you’re able to get value in return for him equivalent to his pre-season value (meaning his first 2 starts hasn’t decreased his value any in your league), then it might be wise to make the swap.
I have Sabathia worth only $1 less than Webb, so to me they are equals, but I guess if an owner drafted Webb, it’s probably because he preferred him to Sabathia! I think Snell and Francis are selling way too low. And as a Kazmir owner in 2 leagues, I’m scared of his injury enough that I’m not even offering for him in my other 2 leagues.
Leave a Comment