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Take a Chance on Me - 3rd Edition

April 12th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Brandon Heikoop

The return of Take a Chance on Me takes a look at a pitcher and an outfielder to consider adding to your rosters. Whether you are struggling or are off to a quick start, both of these players are worth considering in all leagues. In this week’s Take a Chance on Me I take a look at why a team should add Jake Westbrook and Luke Scott and what to expect from each of them down the road.

Jake Westbrook

Currently available in over 80% of ESPN leagues, Jake Westbrook is being tremendously underrated. In fact, I will even pretend that his outstanding Spring and increased use of his change up (and improvements on the pitch altogether) did not even happen. Instead, I will simply talk about what Jake Westbrook has done when it counted.

Westbrook has typically been a pitcher I avoided in Fantasy leagues. I found that his ERA, Wins and in some leagues, Complete Games could never compensate for his low strikeout rate. I will admit, that occasionally I would see value in owning a pitcher like Westbrook, but in the big picture, he’s a guy I would traditionally go without. Obviously this sentiment is shared by 80% of my league mates in ESPN leagues.

But this year, I see something different. Jake should continue what he started when he returned from an injury last season. Where he posted a second half ERA of 3.44 en route to a tolerable WHIP and a ‘better than usual’ strikeout per 9 of 5.4.

Personally, I believe the Indians overall team fielding had much to do with the improvements Westbrook endured in 2007. Essentially every position on the field performed at or above league average, something the Indians haven’t experienced for some time. There is little reason to expect the fielding to worsen from where the club was at the end of last year, in fact, one could argue that with the amount of young players, there is a great chance at the team fielding improving.

And just for kicks, what if Jake improves his strikeout rate with that improved change up? While his success hasn’t been noted to this point in the season, we are also talking a sample size that has less relevance then Spring Training.

Take a Chance on Jake Westbrook with one of the final spots in your rotation as I am, and you will not be sorry.

Luke Scott

Between 2006 and 2007 Scott logged 583 at bats, or about a season’s worth of work. He also cracked 28 long balls, with 80 runs and 101 runs batted in. He also posted a respectable .285 batting average and a solid .377 on base percentage. Essentially, over the two year period he was Brad Hawpe, someone I’m certain any team could accept as a 3rd or 4th outfielder. The difference, Scott is owned in 13% of ESPN leagues and Hawpe is owned in 100% of them.

Statistically, Scott is an ‘ideal’ outfielder. While he takes his share of hacks and strikes out a decent amount, this player that the Orioles received in a salary dump may end up having the better numbers then Mr. Tejada.

There is nothing that Scott has done during his professional baseball career that truly sticks out. Nothing that is a statistical anomaly. The guy hammers out line drives as a hobby, and as a left handed hitter will benefit from the shorter wall in right field.

Speaking of the ballpark, according to ESPN’s ballpark factors Camden Yards has been the superior hitters park and in recent years, been a superior ballpark to hit home runs in. So if Scott was capable of hitting 28 home runs in a season’s worth of hitting at Minute Maid Park, think of what a season at Camden could do.

To this point, Scott has made a flawless transition to the American League. As a rule, the AL deflates players statistics, but I feel as though regular playing time, as well as the move to a more hitter friendly ballpark will more then take care of that.

What do I expect out of Luke Scott for the 2008 season? The first thing, is for Scott to be moved up in the batting order. Right now he is hitting 6th behind future hall of famers Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora. Give Scott a couple more weeks and he will be hitting at least a spot higher in the order providing him with greater RBI opportunities, as well as more at bats.

Lets set his minimum line at:

25HR, 70R, 85RBI, .280 and .360

I find it difficult to believe there are fantasy owners out there who could not use those numbers. But what about his ceiling?

35HR, 85R, 105RBI, .295 and .360

Although admittedly, everything would have to go Scott’s way in 2008 and he would need a great deal of luck, but hey, it happens, right owners of Magglio Ordonez in 2007?

Take a chance on, Luke Scott!

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Anonymous // Apr 13, 2008 at 10:59 am

    Is there anyway in the future you can play the ABBA song when I click on this post?

  • 2 bddbrandon // Apr 13, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    Haha, that would be hysterical!

    Thanks for reading!

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