In Week 4’s TACOM I outlined a middle infielder and a low risk high reward first basemen to take a chance on and this week I am going to keep up the under the radar players while giving myself dues for some risky, yet rewarding pre-season sleepers.

Dioner Navarro

I wrote about Dioner way back in February with my first installment of Fantasy Friday’s. I tabbed him as my catcher of choice entering draft day, even going some drafts without taking one at all, choosing instead to scoop up some long-term DL players. I even named him as my top sleeper of the year and have gotten as ridiculous as to say he will be a top 5 catcher for the 2008 season.

After the first game of the season, I was glowing, already deeming myself the next Ron Shandler. Then, Navarro went down with an injury. I didn’t give up hope and held onto him in every league I was in, despite significant lineup restraints in some.

Navarro has returned and has rewarded the 0.7% in ESPN leagues that currently own him. Now I can understand owning the usual suspects like Martinez, Mauer and Martin over Navarro. I get the preference of Soto and McCann over Navarro. But what I can’t grasp is how many other catchers are owned over Navarro, and in bunches!

Currently, Navarro is doing everything I expected out of him, although currently lacking the power. While we cannot yet key in on his current batted ball data as a truth, it does appear as though Navarro’s unlucky BABIP numbers will begin to go the other way. If he continues to hit so few fly balls with that strikeout rate, he may contend for the batting title (although I’m not holding my breath).

Navarro raked in Spring and made high A pitchers look like high A pitchers. One may find it interesting, however, that Navarro would not be considered an over the hill prospect if he was currently at high A, given his age and position.

That aside, there is no reason for a team that does not own one of the top 3 to not have Navarro, at the very least, at the top of their radar. My optimistic projection for Navarro at the end of February was: 75 runs, 25 home runs, 80 runs batted in, .275 and .345. I’m wondering about the power figures, but I am feeling as if I should bump the batting average, especially considering what Navarro did in the second half of 2007.

If you don’t own one of the big three catchers, or even McCann and Soto, take a chance on Dioner Navarro, and be pleasantly surprised.

Jonathan Sanchez

There will be an undeniable amount of hype around Sanchez in coming days. In fact, given his rise to fame in the last week (+12.6% from a week ago) I would say the bug has already caught on. But Sanchez is still owned in fewer then 50% of ESPN leagues. The reason for this and for the 100% ownership of (for example) Tim Hudson is beyond me.

That is, what can one reasonably expect from Tim Hudson at most? Essentially, the same season he had in 2007? Where each of his batted ball data was significantly lower then his career marks despite a drop in strikeouts, which is a killer on fantasy teams. Conversely, Jonathan Sanchez has an enormously high ceiling given his ’stuff’ and incredible minor league track record.

Take a look at how dominant Sanchez was against the Cincinnati Reds the other day and this video for his effort against the Padres early in the season (”Got em”).

Currently, Sanchez is keeping his walks at bay, while increasing his strikeout rate. This is definitely a formula for success. It helps that Sanchez pitches in a beautiful park for pitchers, where his high fly ball tendencies will not hurt him as much as it would in a lot of other parks.

Furthermore, as it stands, Sanchez’s batted ball data (BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB) are all at sustainable rates. In fact, Sanchez is not even being lucky in any one of those categories.

Which leads me to So what is Sanchez doing differently?

At first glance, I thought, possibly he is throwing more strikes. False, his strike to ball ratio is actually less then it was in 2007. Although is still does sit at 61.7% v. 61.9% in 2007.

Thus, the major difference is that Sanchez is simply not running into poor luck. His BABIP is, as mentioned, at a sustainable level, instead of the devastatingly high .367 of a year ago. His HR/FB has dropped to league average, something one would expect out of a guy who piles up so many strikeouts at that ball park.

These two figures, in addition to the increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks is what makes Sanchez a no-brainer for any fantasy team in any format.

Another reason for picking up Sanchez, in my pre-season division by division previews, I picked Sanchez to be my breakout candidate for the Giants asserting that he “is a player who will be given the opportunity to shine and should take the ball and run with it”.

Take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez of the San Francisco Giants, and make all of those who are waiting for the experts to tell them what to do, look foolishly slow.