Fantasy Baseball Generals

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The "General" Speculator-Bargains

April 7th, 2008 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

The Generals look forward to who you should target in trade if you missed out on them during your draft or auction.

In case you missed out on some of the players we have been touting (either good or ill), here are some names to make sure you target when you are trying to buy low or sell high.

Mike Podhorzer
Bargains:

Lastings Milledge- Batting 2nd every day and with a seemingly healthy Nick Johnson leading to an improved Nats lineup, should go 15/15 at the least with a solid average.

Nate McLouth- Draft position and dollar value were down because we didn’t know if he’d get full-time ABs. Now that he will be, he’s an early favorite for bargain of the year if he sticks. Won’t help your average, but should go 15/25 at the least.

Andrew Sonnanstine- I’ve been hyping him every chance I get. Fantastic control and above average K rate, but will give up the HR as he’s basically a neutral GB/FB pitcher. Doesn’t have the upside of the other 3 pitchers, but should have a solid WHIP and could post a low 4 ERA, after being undrafted in most mixed leagues, except of course if I’m in your league!

Dustin McGowan- Another guy I’ve talked way too much about- groundballs, strikeouts, improving control, this is a picture perfect major breakout profile. With all the hype he’s received pre-season, I was shocked at how late he was still being drafted.

Brandon Heikoop

Here are my biggest bargains for the 2008 season:
1. Troy Glaus - All signs are pointing to ‘healthy’. Despite the poor batting average, Glaus is still a 35+ home run hitter. Picking him up in the 180s is outstanding value.

2. Jason Bartlett - The theme here, are players I drafted late. Bartlett is going to be a poor man’s Furcal despite not being drafted enough to crack ESPN.Com’s average draft position. Just wait for him to crack the top of the order.

3. Shane Victorino - Take on these 2007 comparisons: Player A - 12HR, 78 runs, 46 RBIs, 37 steals, .281/.347 in 456 at bats. Player B - 11HR, 93 runs, 80 RBIs, 50 steals, .315/.355 in 584 at bats. Player A is Shane Victorino, whom if we prorate his stats to parallel Crawford’s at bats, trailed in only average (a career high for Crawford) and RBIs. Yet the difference on draft day, 110+ picks.

Honorable Mentions: Nick Swisher, Rafael Soriano and Manny Parra.

Jeremy Tomasulo
Bargains:

Phil Hughes - people may lay off him because of his age and the pressure that will be placed upon him this year. I think that he is good enough now to at least be a good #3 pitcher and will show flashes of brilliance at times. You may get him in later rounds in some leagues, and slipped in at bargain prices in auctions.

Ryan Church - We are not talking about MVP caliber numbers here, but he can be a nice flyer for teams late in drafts or auctions. He had nice double power in the Yellowstone National Park in DC last year. While Shea isn’t exactly a band box, he may gain a couple of more dingers and keep the extra base power in the process.

Aaron Hill - nobody talks about him when discussing the best second basemen, but Hill put up some great numbers in relative obscurity last year. I expect even more from him this year.

Ian Snell - the Pirates have been bad for a long time and Snell may struggle with wins, but he does have great stuff and a couple of years under his belt now. He could give great stats in secondary categories and perhaps even manage a 14-8 season or something like that. He would certainly be worth a late glance.


Andrew Cleary

Breakout: Nate McLouth. I’ll second Matt’s prediction on this one. I think he is similar to Corey Hart but doesn’t get as much attention.
He is very much as worth having as Hart. If you have both I should
say you can expect a good year.

Carlos Gomez. Patrick has said many times he’s not sure about him,
and the smart money will side with his opinion. I am piling a stack
of what-ifs with this, but I think Delmon Young and Gomez could
combine with rebound years from Mauer and Morneau to give the Twins a
better year than most expect them to. If that happens, Gomez could be
kept playing every day, which is good enough to give you a lot of
steals, and, if he does in fact break out, good batting numbers as well.

Alan Embree. Though I would much rather see Huston Street keep the
closer job all year and post the great numbers he’s capable of, I do
think there’s a very good chance he will drop out for injury or
otherwise, and I think Embree is good enough to step in and keep the
job for the rest of the year.

Matt Finkelstein

Biggest Bargain: The biggest bargains will be whichever middle reliever auctioned for $2 becomes the closer when the regular falters. There are several candidates, Chad Qualls, Carlos Marmol, Cla Meredith, the list goes on. For regulars who could step up this year, I’ll take Austin Kearns and Nate McLouth.

Kearns, 27, a former highly touted prospect, has never “blossomed” into a superstar according to Baseball Prospectus. The Forecaster notes that RFK sapped his power (not the first, but may be the last), but he compensated with a better batting eye and contact rate. I agree with the Forecaster that in the new stadium “there’s still a power bat lurking there.” I was glad to roster Kearns for $16 in that same league.

McLouth, 26, went for $17 in the keeper league; Pat and I got him for $6 in the high stakes league. I’ve followed McLouth for the last few years because of his speed. Now it seems like he’s adding power. In his first opportunity for playing time, he went 12/18 in the second half last year, with 52 runs scored. In his first full year, McLouth could be our biggest bargain.

P.S. I love Corey Hart. Pat thinks we overpaid bidding $27 during the online phase of the auction. He may not be a bargain at $27, but he will be an important producer this year.

Rob McQuown
I did a piece on exactly this last week, called Crazy Crazy Roto Prices (http://blog.baseballdigestdaily.com/blog/_archives/2008/3/21/3594378.html)

I’d add Josh Hamilton to underrated, upon thinking more about it, but here’s the Cliff notes of my article:

Rankings based on Yahoo Sports’ “Big List”. Sorted by most-wrong, IMO:
Under-rated:
#95 Nick Swisher. People just gotta be realistic about park effects. Oakland was the worst possible place in the world for him… US Cellular is possibly the best. This isn’t the 07 Sox, either… they’re going to score runs, and he’ll be in the middle of lots of long rallies. Expect the batting average to be high enough to not hurt you, too.

#13 Johan Santana. The argument against paying a lot for pitching is that they aren’t reliable, and so you can get good pitching for cheap… And, conversely, you
can waste good money on top-flight pitchers if they flop. But is any hitter really more reliable than Johan? And he’s moving to the non-DH league for a team in a great park with great defense and decent offense. Why not win 4 categories with one player?

BUBBLE. Matt Capps.
UNRANKED. Joakim Soria. I have no idea why people rank these two closers so lowly… it’s teams near .500 in pitchers parks which generate the most saves, and both these guys have the nasty, lights-out stuff that you want in a closer.

#30 Erik Bedard. Better park, better division for a pitcher.

#56 Corey Hart. A true 5-category player. What more could you want? Probably rated this low by most since he didn’t get a full 650 AB in 2007, but he certainly will in 2008.

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