Our Biggest Bust, After Giving up a Homer.

Trade the guys here for the guys in the “Bargains” post and float away to fantasy greatness. Here are some guys to trade while they still have high perceived value.

Mike Podhorzer
Busts:

Justin Morneau- I cannot understand why this guy continues to be drafted in the 3rd/4th round. He’s not a bust in the baseball sense of the word, he’s a bust in that using any projection you’d like, he’s just not worth the price people continue to pay for him. There’s barely a difference between he and Konerko, yet he goes many rounds earlier, and it’s ridiculous to chalk that up strictly to the higher upside.

Dan Uggla- Like Morneau, his projections lead to a value much lower than what owners pay for him. Just another example of why it’s so important to actually calculate values instead of using other people’s rankings or taking wild guesses. His low average kills his value.

Justin Verlander- No real baseball bust here, but he’s just drafted way too early, as owners for some reason expect a Cy Young worthy year. He’s a neutral GB/FB pitcher, so that’s a negative, and his control is just average. The only way he could produce the low 3 ERA many owners are hoping for is if he were to increase his K rate yet again AND lower his walk rate, which is a tall order and not something you should pay for.

Carlos Zambrano- I assume at this point that it’s only newbie owners drafting him early, because the warning signs have been highlighted on every good fantasy site and message board all around the land. So I won’t bother repeating them, but it still boggles my mind how much people continue to pay for this guy.

Chris Young- Has never pitched more than 179 innings in a season, and his xERAs have been over 4 the last 3 years. I don’t want him on my team the year his BABIP regresses to league average. And besides, his only above average skill is his K rate.

Brandon Heikoop

My busts for the 2008 season:
1. Any pitcher in the top 15 not named Santana, Peavy or Bedard. The difference between the #4 pitcher (Webb) and the #33 pitcher (Burnett) is not all that much in my opinion. Not enough to justify 120 picks in a draft. I’m not a ‘pitch and ditch’ guy, nor am I a LIMA planner. I am however, all about value. Which drafting the #4 thru 15 guys do not provide.

2. Jorge Posada - Players do not have the second best season of their careers as a 36 year old. Catchers doing so are even more rare. Nothing changed for Jorge in 2007 yet everything that hit his bat, landed in play. Posada will provide a nice 10th grade arithmetic lesson for everyone as he ‘regresses towards the mean’.

3. Miguel Cabrera - Eternal hope. In 2007 Cabrera had the best season of his young and fantastic career. He ranked as Yahoo!s #16 overall player.
He also moves to a tougher league. Now despite Comerica playing as a slightly better hitter’s environment, Cabrera found himself being drafted in the top 10. This does not represent value.

4. Curtis Granderson - Here’s a rule of thumb, stay away from currently injured players. Here’s another one. Stay away from players with no plate discipline when everything they hit landed in play the previous season. Granderson is about the equivalent of Mike Cameron this year, how many of you drafted him with a top 50 pick?

5. Andruw Jones - Upside, 40+HR. Downside, less than 26HR. I don’t see the move to a bigger spotlight (LA) and an equally as terrible ballpark to hit in complimenting Jones. Whoever chose Jones over Swisher should be banned from fantasy sports. I said it!

Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera, Matt Cain and Todd Helton.

Tim Lincecum After Giving Up A Homer

Jeremy Tomasulo
Busts:
Mike Lowell - He is a solid player, but last year he played like a man possessed. I can see him coming back down to earth and taking many a fantasy team with him.

Tim Lincecum/Matt Cain - If you ask me in 2010, these guys would not be down here. They are immensely talented pitchers that are playing on an immensely untalented team. There is bad defense behind them in the infield and they will have little margin for error this year. That can weigh on young pitchers no matter how talented they are.

Livan Hernandez - I know, how can he be a bust when everyone knows it already? Because some teams out there will take a flyer on him for a buck or a late round pick because Livan will give you innings. Don’t do it. Just take Kei Igawa instead - at least his bad innings will take place in AAA. There are always better options out there than these retreads - see also, Steve Trachsel.

Alfonso Soriano - Don’t get me wrong, I would take him on my team. However, I think he will likely be taken a lot earlier than he deserves. If he bats lower in the lineup as the Cubs plan on doing, don’t be surprised to see all of his steals wash away and his comfort level stripped. Soriano has always been rather undisciplined in approach and technique and that may catch up to him. Don’t waste an early pick on him, let some one else do it while you take Alex Rios or Chris Young.

Andrew Cleary
Busts -
Gary Sheffield. He used to be reliable, then reliable-but-
watch-for-injury; this year might finally be the year he falls apart. It’s not just the possible injuries that will keep him out, but also the small-pond effect of Detroit’s much-hyped offense: if there is a question about his ability to play, I don’t think the Tigers will have much trouble putting another good hitter in the DH slot.

Carlos Marmol - He is a good middle reliever but I don’t think he can repeat last year’s stellar performance. He was great to have if you picked him up then, but drafting him this year means taking a big risk on the big pendulum swing back to the mean–not just on strikeouts, but on home runs given up.

I’ll also just make another quick parrot peep on a Zambrano bust.

Matt Finkelstein
Biggest Bust: Carlos Zambrano. Baseball Prospectus notes that he’s been pitching ahead of his peripheral numbers for several seasons. The other shoe has to drop sooner or later. Rising whip and era, declining strikeout rate. Last year, it looked like his mechanics changed dramatically - dropping his arm angle to 3/4. The Forecaster has a downside of 4.50 ERA this year. I was shocked when he was auctioned in my (high inflation) keeper league for $39 (I have Webb kept at $29).

Rob McQuown

Over-rated:
#40 Gary Sheffield. Old. An awful #40 pick before Granderson was hurt, not even top 100 now.

#14 Alfonso Soriano. Gimpy legs means less steals. 6 SB in 2nd half last year. At least they’re trying him down in the order, so RBIs shouldn’t be wanting again.

#5 Chase Utley. Durability questions, BA in 2007 was fluky-high, and Rollins won’t have as good
of a year batting in front of him. Still great, but not at #5 overall. Positional scarcity means very little in most leagues.

#12 Albert Pujols. I cannot see betting my roto season on whether Pujols will go under the knife when the Cardinals prove themselves unable to compete.

#79 Adrian Gonzalez. 1B is deep, PETCO is bad, and NL West pitching improved this year. A decent “solid” pick, but just outside of top 100.