This week The Generals discuss whether there is hope for Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy.

Mike Podhorzer– I still stand by my opinions I stated in my recent article on Hughes. Until his missing velocity returns and he remembers how to induce ground balls, I’m staying away in fantasy leagues. I’m also really not sure where his control went, but I’m not too worried about that. However, in terms of real baseball, I’m still very bullish on his future, as his minor league numbers just can’t be ignored. His curve ball is fantastic and fastball well above average when his velocity isn’t down, so his long-term outlook shouldn’t be affected much by his poor start this year.

On the other hand, I was never that optimistic on Ian Kennedy. He’s a fly ball pitcher with just decent control and only has 34 2/3 innings at AAA. Like Hughes, he’s also had major control problems this year, so I have no idea what’s in the air at Yankee Stadium that’s affecting these young pitchers. Over the long-term he should be at least league average, but he’s not someone I’d have any interest in buying low on or owning in a fantasy league this year.

Kevin Orris- Sure there is hope.  I think being Yankees prospects (a rare commodity these days) made them overhyped.  The Yankees have struggled to find young talent beyond Robinson Cano in the past few years, and it makes me skeptical with the guys coming up from the minors, as far as how good they really are. 

 Kennedy has to work on his control.  Mike Podhorzer pointed out that Jeremy Bonderman is injured and is suffering from the same difficulties; maybe there is something similar in this case. Hughes’ walks are also up from last year.  We know that he did in fact have an injury last year, and maybe is still suffering some setbacks. 

 With both of these pitchers, WHIP is killing them, as it does with most young pitchers.  It is typically until a pitchers third year that they show what they are really made of.  For now, if they are in fact healthy, I would let them eat up innings and gain experience.  They don’t have too much depth at pitching. 

I wouldn’t have drafted either of the two this year though, as well as Joba.  The Yankees prospects are too sketchy.

Brian Joura–In fantasy, right now they are too good to cut and not good enough to play.  The question is if there’s anyone in your league willing to give anything in a trade for them.  With the Yankees offense, you have to figure they will be good for at least wins at some point in the near future.

In real life, this is the best thing that could happen.  In the old days with George Steinbrenner slumps like this meant someone’s head would roll.  It was fun as a baseball fan to see the overreaction from a small sample size.  I’m glad we’re potentially getting an opportunity to see Hank Steinbrenner fill his father’s shoes.  Hopefully he sends Kennedy to the South Atlantic League, trades Hughes for pennies on the dollar and fires Joe Girardi.

Rob McQuown–The situation looks dire for both Hughes and Kennedy, and I wouldn’t have wanted them on my team the past few weeks (it sure makes me look smart for not being able to draft either of them this year), but I think there is still hope for managers who own them, even if the season turns out hopeless for the pitchers. Both Hughes and Kennedy come with a lot of star power, in both the real world and fantasy world, and that means that, for better or for worse, they will tend to have inflated value for a while. 

I would say chances are good for most Hughes and Kennedy owners that at least one or two managers in their league are still convinced the two are well worth having, even if they only turn out mediocre seasons this year. It’s what you might call the Barry Zito Effect (not that the Yankees’ rookies are THAT bad)–some once-super-hyped players keep getting drafted and held on teams long after they have shown themselves to be not worth the money. It’s worth holding on to Hughes or Kennedy and benching them until either their outings improve or a good trade can be made for them, or both.

Brandon Heikoop–They are Yankees and I often dismiss Yanks at the draft that are overvalued.  Consider all the Yankee fans out there that can’t see past the fact that Mike Mussina is a terrible starting pitcher?

However, that is not the question.  The question asks if there is any hope for Hughes or Kennedy. Personally, I was never sold on Kennedy.  His minor league numbers, while impressive, are vastly skewed due to small sample sizes and incredible luck!  Any minor league pitcher who has a BABIP below .300 with average stuff is that much luckier. Kennedy does not have electric stuff.  His best pitch is a changeup, but with a less then stellar fastball and an average 3^rd offering, Kennedy will struggle once hitters begin to key in on his change.  I will borrow a quote from Kevin Goldstein here when he says, “Kennedy is pretty much the poster child for the kind of player who can put up ridiculous numbers in the minor leagues, but when it comes to the majors, he’s not as good.”

As for Hughes, I’m still high on him.  I am absolutely enamored with his stuff.  I also think people are forgetting that Hughes was on his way to a no-hitter before pulling up lame. Unlike Kennedy, Hughes does have electric stuff.  He also has the typical, projectable body of an upper tier pitcher. In almost every league I am struggling between trying to trade for Hughes and hoping for one last bad start where his owners will jump ship. However, if that bad start is a solid to great one, what will his price jump up to?

In conclusion, Hughes is the guy for me, without any question about it. He is going to be a top of the rotation ace while Kennedy, valuable in his own right, will settle in at the end of the rotation.

Jeremy Tomasulo–I’ll try not to read too much into being left off of the list this week and not recall Jerry Seinfeld’s story about how he never got a script for his role on Benson and went to work not realizing that he had in fact been fired.  I’d rather it just have been an oversight

Anyway the question…to quote Aragorn, “There is always hope.”  I know Rob was being awfully cheeky (and funny) in his response, but there are people in NY seriously questioning the logic used to keep Hughes and Kennedy and not add Santana in the offseason.  I for one refuse to use an unfinished month of April to throw these guys on the scrap heap.

Pitcher X - First full season - 6-14 record, 155 IP, 5.61 ERA, 74 BB, 101 K at age 21

Pitcher Y - First two seasons - one full and one partial - 9-21 record, 245 IP, 4.76 ERA, 96 BB, 104 K - age 21-22

Pitcher Z - First full season - 7-13, 160 IP, 4.82 ERA, 96 BB, 130 K - age 25

These three pitchers are the active wins leaders (minus Roger who is not on a team) - Maddux, Glavine and Johnson.  Take a grain of salt fellow Yankee fans, these kids deserve a better chance than April 2008.  That said, if more time passes and struggles remain the yanks may consider a demotion.  Of course, other than Joba, who steps into the rotation? Rasner? Igawa?  I would rather ride it out with the kids as long as I can and hope their talent shakes out the kinks sooner rather than later.

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