This week the Generals opine on whether to buy, sell or hold on Johnny Cueto after his stunning debut, and give their season long projections.

Andrew Cleary-

In terms of what I expect out of Cueto from here on out, which is the key in this equation as what he does from start #3 onwards is what you as the fantasy owner are going to net, something along these lines:
11 Wins, 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 Ks in 170 Innings Pitched

Consider that Cueto’s final line, with those ‘here on out’ numbers will
look as follows: 12 Wins, 4.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 Ks in 183 Innings Pitched

For this season, shoot for the stars.  Aim at Erik Bedard or Josh Beckett and work downwards from there.  If you can afford to have the inactive body for the next couple of weeks, go after Kazmir.  Maybe Verlander’s owner isn’t a die hard Tigers fan and you can get a package of
Verlander and a nice hitter.

 Mike Podhorzer-

Since I have already posted 2 articles on Cueto, I won’t repeat what I wrote, so just linking to the
articles would work. I plugged in some possible peripheral combinations into Baseball HQ’s xERA formula, where I projected groundball and flyball rates, K/9, and BB/9, and even increased his
BABIP and HR/F to see the downside given the poor D and HR-friendly park. I got a range of a mid-3 ERA to a low-4 ERA. I’ll take the middle ground and project a high 3 ERA, with a solid WHIP due to the
good control. With a good K rate, though, he probably has much more mixed league value than he’ll be getting credit for from all the sell high guys. I had him worth anywhere from $8-$14 in my 12-team mixed league, which was equal to Billingsley on the low end and Roy Halladay
on the high end.

I agree that I’m ready to sell high after a hopefully 3rd dominating start against the Pirates on Sunday, but I’m going to be making damn sure I get enough value in return that gives me some cushion in case Cueto does hit that high end of my projection range.

Rob McQuown-

This week’s roundtable seems like an obvious no-brainer.  He has a 2.03 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP, with a spotless 1-0 record, playing for a team which should score runs, and has a decent-to-good defense, and a manager who will be very vigilant about leaving him in to get credit for his own wins….

OF COURSE YOU SELL HIGH IN A REDRAFT LEAGUE!!!

If someone is willing to pay for Cueto as something akin to a true ace, tie a bow on him and hand-deliver him.  Nothing kills a Rotisserie season like relying on young pitchers (except maybe relying on injury-prone pitchers, notes this incurable Rich Harden addict).  I would only trade for Cueto (a failure to “sell high” has to be viewed as being willing to trade for a player, IMO) in one of two situations:

1. A keeper league where I didn’t have a good team.  He could be a rare talent at pitcher, and while I’d still shop him in this situation, I’d need to get considerable future value for him.

2. A league where I feel somewhat desperate about my SP situation, and have little chance to get into the “money” without a big boost (for example, if I’d drafted Kelvim Escobar early, and my team wasn’t killer without him).  Obviously, Cueto has the pure “stuff” that gives him a chance to be an impact SP, but pitchers are so inconsistent, and young pitchers even moreso… but the consistent impact pitchers are hard to get, so if you’re in a bind, roll the dice on a young one.

Cueto isn’t a groundball pitcher, so he won’t benefit from having Gonzalez (if he ever returns) and Phillips up the middle.  And, while Corey Patterson makes their OF much rangier, Dunn and Griffey “bookend” Patterson, and have about as much range as bookends.  In Great American Small Park games, many fly balls are beyond the range of any outfielder, anyway. 

Cueto is a very promising young pitcher who has had everything go right for him for 2 starts now (after opening eyes in spring training).  Just keep in mind that much worse pitchers have also had 2 great starts in a row in their careers.  If someone believes he’s a 2-ERA pitcher with a sub-1 WHIP, a winning Roto player will take the fast start in stride and expect a 13-9 record with a 3.75 ERA this year… and will take advantage of that “perception gap” and trade him immediately! 

Brian Joura-

I predict a 15-9 record with a 4.30 ERA or basically a Ted Lilly-type year.  If someone wants to pay more than Lilly value in a Cueto deal, I definitely sell high on him.  However, my guess is that most people want to wait a few more starts before offering a king’s ransom for a rookie pitcher, even one currently leading the league in strikeouts.