Manny Corpas blows his third save and Fuentes is coming back into favor. What is going on?

We tagged Corpas as a possible flop in the article on the Rockies, saying:

Manny Corpas Corpas is a good example of why there is so much closer turnover among second and third tier closers. Corpas took advantage of an injury by posting luck-aided 26% hit rate and 84% strand rate, both of which will not be repeated….Any big correction in his luck aided stats last year in high leverage innings could result in him losing the job.

So far Corpas has a 28% hit rate and a 53% strand rate. That hit rate is still below (above?) average, and he is getting unlucky in strand rate.  That is what regression to the mean is all about.  He has blown four saves so far, including his second straight, and has a short leash going forward.

It must be understood that Corpas is the same pitcher that he was last year. It is all about perception, not reality. He is going through the normal swings and variation that any pitcher goes through; it is just that his correction is happening at a time when it is more visible, early in the season and in a high leverage job.

The edge to fantasy owners comes from the fact that managers and fantasy players do not understand the vagaries of chance and ascribe meaning to events that are purely random. They seek to explain what they don’t know in the language that they do know.  Corpas is a good pitcher and is closer-worthy but if he fails again it will be ascribed to some nebulous explanation like overwork or tipping his pitches or other such nonsense. In reality it is statistical regression and nothing else.

Fuentes, on the other hand, also has a closer worthy skill set and has pitched well this year, certainly better than Corpas.  He may get the role back far sooner than people think.  In the preseason we explained that closers who win the job based on lucky seasons are at great risk in losing the job next year. Of the group of pitchers fitting this profile Corpas may be first in line.

The only caution here is that Corpas also has a closer-worthy skill set and will not accede so easily. We aren’t talking about a Brian Wilson level pitcher here after all. It will be an interesting battle worth watching. My recommendation is to grab Fuentes and monitor the situation.