The last of John Sickels’ true or false columns: True or False, The National League Rookie of the Year will NOT be one of the following players: Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley, Geovany Soto.

If the statement is true, who will it be?

If the statement is false, which one will it be and why?

I have already picked Manny Parra as my NL ROY. So you may ask why I am writing this article. The reason is that all of the other guys have significant flaws that are worth addressing. It is always prudent to temper your expectation on all rookies, no matter their pedigree, and all of these guys with the exception of Headley have great flaws.

Jay Bruce I don’t see how he can win unless Patterson absolutely flops and even then he may not get the ABs. Given Dusty Baker’s proclivities and what he has said about Patterson, Patterson need only hit around .250 to hold the job, and he is an “old school” type player which only helps. Cincinnati has nothing to gain right now by letting Bruce rot on the bench so his path to the ROY in 2008 is essentially over barring miraculous circumstances.

Colby Rasmus What reason is there to think he can hit well enough in the majors to win the ROY award? None that I can see; he likely will hit in the .230-.240 range if he came up right now. In a weak field he could pull a Bobby Crosby and win the award with a BA that low, but not when there are other very good contenders.

Cameron Maybin Since he is starting in AA it appears that he will not be up this year unless things radically change. This was a smart move by the Marlins so given that they are being smart now it is not likely that they bring him up in time to have a shot at the ROY. They are far more likely to let him have a full year in the minors, moving up to AAA before coming back to the majors.

Geovany Soto Despite my thought that he has no chance of being a power hitting catcher this year since last year was a huge outlier and his manager is very tough on catchers, he is a reasonable choice. He does have a job already and I could very well be wrong about his hitting skills. But his main weakness is that he is very likely to disappoint given the expectations. I see no chance of him having a big year but that doesn’t mean he won’t!

Chase Headley Of this group he is by far the best candidate, and I thought about selecting him instead of Parra. The only problem here is that Hairston has good power and is likely to hit well enough to maintain at least a credible hold on the job. Hairston hits tons of flyballs, giving him 25 HR power even in that park, and if he hits .260 Headley will not unseat him. So, a lot of his potential rests with what happens with Giles and Edmonds. I still like Headley quite a bit in this race however, and he would be no surprise.

In my high stakes auction league these guys went for fairly big bucks:

Soto $10
Maybin $7
Votto (not mentioned above but instructive) $8
Bruce $8
Headley $10
Rasmus $9

As can plainly be seen, almost none of these guys has a chance of turning a profit on those salaries in 2008. If they do it will be a small one. What is even more difficult is that if they are kept then after next year their owner must sign them to a long term contract at an extra $5 per year or must renew them for one year. This is a very tough decision with guys that are only becoming full time players during the year you must “fish or cut bait.”

My general rule is that I will not spend more than $3 or $4 on any player without a job coming out of spring training, or “on spec.” This way I minimize the risk of a rookie year flameout leading to a tough decision or, worse yet, the player staying in the minors for a full season. It is a popular strategy in auction leagues to get players based on potential but one that the General must avoid. A far better strategy is to go after the veteran that is competing with the rookie:

Hatteberg (Votto) $2
Ross (Maybin) $3
Patterson (Bruce) $2
Giles (Rasmus) $6
Edmonds (Rasmus) $3
Hairston (Headley) $1

These players have far more profit potential than their more highly touted competitors. All of them have at least one skill that is likely to turn a profit or is good enough overall to be a solid everyday player. One mark of the experienced auction competitor, especially in tougher leagues, is to target the solid boring veteran over the highly touted unproven rookie unless the rookie goes for $5 or less.

There is also a large opportunity cost with those rookies since their money, even if you are looking long term, is flatly wasted when they rot on your reserve roster. The guy that spends $10 on a rookie who has no job almost never wins; in the auction endgame not only are there valuable pitchers out there but also valuable (and far more keepable) rookies!

Franklin Gutierrez whacks a hit

For example, the $9 spent on Colby Rasmus could have netted, just from my team:

Franklin Gutierrez $2
Adam Lind $1
John Danks $2
Andre Ethier $3

Or, if you want to look at other guys that could have been had for $8 or less:

Melky Cabrera $8
Garret Anderson $7
Zack Greinke $9
Matt Diaz $5
Nate McLouth $6

For a team looking to win these apparently less flashy players are far more likely to push a team towards a championship than the rookies with no job.