On Sunday’s radio show I recommended keeping Sabathia in for one more start and holding tight on Verlander.  I still do, and here is more detailed analysis, though there is more room for concern with Sabathia.

Hopefully everyone reading this listened to the show on Sunday. During the show the topic of Verlander and Sabathia came up, naturally.  On Verlander there was speculation that he would become a closer (!) and on Sabathia everyone wanted to cut bait. 

There is a chance that Sabathia has a hidden injury, but other than that it was my view (before yesterday’s start) that owners should at least give him one more start, and since he has a two start week we would know a lot more about what is to come after these next two starts. If he were hurt we would expect him to get shellacked again this week but if he pitched well then he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

So much for the concern over Sabathia. He pitched a gem last night against KC, with 11 K and two walks in 6 IP. Hopefully for his owners this will be the start of a turnaround.  If it is, it is yet another data point about commitment and planning.

Similar comments apply about Verlander with regard to commitment.  Like Sabathia he also showed some signs of life last night, with 6 IP, 6 hits and a W.  Still, he had only 3 K and 2 BB, but it is a turnaround nonetheless.

Verlander has had a 29% hit rate the last two seasons, and so far it is 25%.  But this is dwarfed by a low 59% strand rate. He has been getting unlucky.  Through his first three starts his strand rate was even worse at 45%. So it may take a while for the numbers to even out but rest assured that his start is luck induced and there should be no worries going forward.

Sabathia has been even unluckier.  Even after his start yesterday he has a 42% hit rate and a 53% strand rate; both are horribly unfortunate.   He may have a hidden injury leading to this huge hit rate, but after last night it is more likely that it is just bad luck.  His case is a bit different than Verlander because:

1. Sabathia was terrible in the postseason and it is possible that this start is a carryover from some problem last year.

2. His xERA is still a bloated 5.60, though a far cry from his actual ERA.

3. He has given up 5 home runs, which may be bad luck but could be a loss of stuff.

4. The Indians concealed Joe Borowski’s injury, as we have learned that he was hurt during the spring.

5. Such terrible hit rates and strand rates can be indicators of loss of stuff simply because they are so far from the norm.

This bridgejumping by Sabathia owners is unwarranted at this point, though going forward there are a few reasons for concern, and there are few more nettlesome problems than trying to figure out when to cut bait.  With players of this caliber the initial decision must always err on the side of giving them the benefit of the doubt. Given that both players have clearly been unlucky to some degree one simply must insist that the numbers even out before any decisions are made.