On the radio show on Sunday I mentioned that I am very skeptical on Salty’s chances for success. Here is some more detail.

I may be in the minority on this one, but I think Salty will have a tough time ever becoming more than an average to below average player in the majors.

In 2007 he had a .237 xBA with a 76% contact rate and a 6% walk rate. All are below average figures. The problem here is that he has never really shown the ability to hit for a good average; in AA in 2006 he had a .220 xBA. He still needs to show that he can hit in the majors, since his defense is below average by most accounts.

According to PECOTA, looking at his projections through 2014, his age 29 season, his SLG is forecasted to be right around .500 and he is a 4-win player, solid numbers for a catcher.

But it is unlikely, in my view, that he will stay at catcher, and if he moves to 1B or OF these are below average numbers. Laird is far better defensively, which is part of the reason he won the job, and as it happens Texas has two excellent catching prospects behind Salty in Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden, and both are better than Salty defensively.

Teagarden may be the best defensive catcher in the minors and has hit much better than expected. He is much more likely to be the next everyday catcher in Texas than Saltalamacchia, and he may be ready to come up next year. The second problem is Max Ramirez, who is perhaps the best pure hitting prospect in the system and one of the best catcher hitting prospects in the minors.

Ramirez was the winner of John Sickels’ “Josh Willingham This Guy Can F**ing Hit” Award. He is a better hitter than Salty right now and will probably move to DH or 1B after Teagarden moves up.

So, the path to playing time for Salty is closing fast. He needs to hit right off the bat and he also needs to hit enough to play 1B or DH in the long term. I don’t see it happening right now, so it would not be a stretch for him to take the Justin Huber career path.