As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by The Hardball Times, and is similar to DIPS ERA, using the components of HRs allowed, strikeouts, and walks to estimate what the pitcher’s ERA “should” be absent luck. It’s easier to calculate than DIPS and gives a reasonable estimate. However, I just described the basic FIP stat. I’m actually going to be using xFIP which normalizes the HRs allowed component to a league-average and is based on the number of HRs allowed per outfield fly. This metric now eliminates the flaw in the basic FIP formula that includes actual HRs allowed, rather than expected HRs allowed, which has been shown to be mostly luck related and regress toward 10%-11% of fly balls allowed.

The lists below aren’t the exact top 10 leaders and laggards, but rather the more interesting pitchers near the top and bottom. I also only included pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this year. Just to be clear, an xFIP below actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been unlucky, whereas an xFIP above actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been lucky.

 
No real surprises here as all these guys have ERAs way below where any rational person could expect them to finish the season. There are some interesting pitchers to discuss, however, who actually have high xFIPs suggesting they have actually pitched poorly.

As a non-owner, and with no desire to trade for him, I haven’t really paid attention to Fausto Carmona’s season other than remembering he’s had a couple of high walk outings. The other day I decided to check out his line after noticing he had a real nice 2.60 ERA. I was absolutely shocked to find 26 walks and just 13 K’s in 34 2/3 innings. That’s a .50 K/BB ratio! I honestly don’t believe I’ve ever seen a ratio that bad, especially in this many innings. After throwing 140 more innings last year than in 2006, it’s very reasonable to believe he’s suffering from burnout. I’d shop him as aggressively as possible.

Not sure if Bedard still isn’t 100%, last year was a career year that will never come close to being replicated (his K/9 is right back around pre-2007 levels), or if it’s just too small a sample of 24 2/3 innings to conclude anything.

Scott Olsen has NOT turned the corner. I’ve been reading message board threads about him and it seems like some are starting to believe; it’s the typical drivel of “He’s learning how to PITCH, not just throw” or “He’s not trying to strike everyone out anymore, as he’s learning not to be afraid to pitch to contact”. A 15/15 K/BB ratio, and lots of fly balls allowed is all you need to know. Stay far, far away.  

Surprised to see Dice-K on this list? I’m not. We know he didn’t show great control last year, but this is just ridiculous. 27 walks in 40 2/3 innings? Add in his flyball tendencies and a K rate that’s down from last year, and you get one of the luckiest pitchers in all of baseball. I own him in 2 leagues, and after losing Tulowitzki in 1, have decided he’s my man to try landing a replacement at SS.

I’ve also discussed Zack Greinke several times, here and here, but lucky for me as an owner, he has continued to pitch well and keep his ERA well under 2. I’ve been trying real, real hard to trade him, but I must be part of the rare league that apparently has no believers in his hot start. I’m continuing to shop him and will report immediately if I can finally make my first trade of the year.

I’ve discussed Gavin Floyd before here when his ERA was just 1.40. His ERA has now jumped to 3.16 and should continue to rise.

 
Lots of terrible ERAs and pitchers who really haven’t pitched well to begin with. But there are some goodies as always…

C.C. Sabathia’s xFIP has finally dropped below 4 after his last couple of outings where his walk totals were back to normal. Whatever happened to him in his first couple of starts appears to be over with. I’m still not 100% sure he’s all the way back without knowing what initially plagued him. And he still does have all those innings under his belt. But he appears to be the C.C. of old assuming his health is OK.

Where have all the ground balls gone Andrew Miller? One of the skills that made him such a top prospect, besides his strike out ability, was his ability to induce tons of ground balls. At every minor league stop in his career, his GB rate was at least 60%. Even last year in Detroit it was near 50%, and the year before over 60%. This year, however, it’s down to just 40%. I’m still very bullish on his future if he proves the GB% drop is just a small sample size fluke.

Roy Oswalt is fine, but his BB/9 is the highest it’s been in his career. People still seem to think he has continued his decline, but they are wrong. His K/9 is actually the highest it’s been since 2004.

If it’s still possible after a solid outing yesterday versus the Cubs, BUY LOW ON JOHNNY CUETO! If you’re not in a H2H league, it doesn’t matter if he is up and down all year. All you care about is the final ERA. A 1.12 WHIP just doesn’t match up with a 5.27 ERA. 

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.