Steve Carlton won 27 games in 1972 for a team that lost 97 games in a strike-shortened season. In 2008 these three pitchers are turning in similar performances through the middle of May.

Every baseball fan has his favorite pitching season.  Some enjoy Pedro Martinez in 1999 when he went 23-4 with a 2.07 ERA and 313 strikeouts in 213.1 innings.  Others like Randy Johnson, who in 2002 went 24-5 with a 2.32 ERA and 334 strikeouts in 260 innings.

Older fans might point to Doc Gooden in 1985, when he went 24-4 with a 1.85 ERA with eight shutouts and 16 complete games as a 20-year old.  Graybeards will always bring up Bob Gibson’s magical 1968 season, when he went 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA in 304.2 innings and hurled 18 shutouts.  And just about any of Sandy Koufax’s years in the 1960s would qualify here, too.

But my favorite year is the one put up by Steve Carlton in 1972.  After spending all or parts of seven seasons with the Cardinals, Carlton was traded to the Phillies prior to the ‘72 season.  And while playing for one of the worst teams in baseball that year, Carlton went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and fanned 310 batters in 346.1 innings.

How bad were the Phillies?  They went 59-97 in 1972.  On days when Carlton didn’t pitch, they were just 32-87 for a .269 winning percentage.  The Philadelphia Phillies in 1972 without Steve Carlton were basically the 2003 Detroit Tigers, the team that went 43-119 for a .265 winning percentage.  But with Carlton on the mound, that same team of not-yets, has-beens and never-weres magically turned into a better team than the 1927 New York Yankees.  The Ruth-Gehrig-Lazzeri-Combs Murder’s Row Yankees had a .704 winning percentage.  Carlton had a .730 mark.

A month-and-a-half into the 2008 season, we have three pitchers who are doing their best 1972 Steve Carlton imitation.  Aaron Cook, Tim Lincecum and Edinson Volquez are a combined 17-3 (.850 winning percentage) for teams that are 32-67 (.323) without them.

Aaron Cook was 36-35 coming into this year.  It’s hard to predict which event was more unlikely - that Cook would be 6-1 or that the defending National League champion Colorado Rockies would be 15-24 on May 14^th.  Neither seems a good bet to retain their current pace going forward.

Throughout his career in the majors, Cook has allowed a .303 batting average on balls in play, a very normal rate.  This year, his BABIP sits at .247, a figure he is unlikely to sustain.  Cook has done a fantastic job of being an above-average pitcher the past two seasons, despite having a strikeout rate of below five per nine innings both years.  There’s been no improvement in his strikeout rate this year, giving further credence to the idea that he is just enjoying a lucky spell.

While Cook and the Rockies are both a surprise, Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants are both more in line with what fans expected coming into the season.  The Giants lost 91 games last year and then subtracted Barry Bonds from the lineup.  If anything, the Giants are performing a bit better than expected in 2008.  Lincecum went 7-5 as a rookie last year.  Everyone expected he would be a good pitcher; his hot start just pushed forward the time when fans thought he would challenge for 20 wins.

Unlike Cook, Lincecum has a realistic .323 BABIP mark this season.  He also has 53 strikeouts in 50.1 innings.  Where Lincecum has really excelled this season is on the road, where he is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts.  After a relatively hot start, the Giants are 3-6 in their last nine games.  San Francisco has found its expected talent level.  The question is: has Lincecum?

Edinson Volquez is finally living up to expectations in his fourth stint in the majors.  After starting his career 3-11, Volquez is 6-1 this year.  His only loss came when he threw one bad pitch, which Brian McCann ripped for a two-run homer that resulted in a 2-0 loss.  In that game, Volquez struck out nine batters in six innings and allowed just four hits.  How good has Volquez been this season?  Last night he gave up one run in six innings and saw his ERA go up - to 1.12 for the year.

Volquez has a legitimate mid-90s fastball and an equally impressive changeup and seems like a good bet to be one of the game’s top pitchers this season.  The question is - how bad are the Reds?  Cincinnati has two pitchers at the top of its rotation - Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo - who combined to win 55 games the past two seasons.  Those two, along with Volquez and Johnny Cueto, should make for a pretty good pitching staff.  But the Reds are in last place in the NL Central at 17-23.

One other thing Volquez has going in his favor in comparison with Carlton in 1972 is that he too was acquired via trade before the start of the season.  The Reds shipped Josh Hamilton to the Rangers and received Volquez and Daniel Herrera, in a trade that has helped both clubs.

Baseball fans have three pitchers to watch this year now in mid May to see if they can come close to turning in a year like Steve Carlton’s magical 1972 season.  Tim Lincecum has the best shot, being a fine pitcher on a bad team.  And Edinson Volquez might be the best pitcher of the group.  But Aaron Cook will gladly let those two fight it out for the Carlton comparison if his Rockies can mount another September like 2007 which vaulted them into the playoffs and World Series.