I don’t believe it, after a month and a week into the fantasy season, and playing in 4 leagues, I have finally made my first trade. I’m so excited, I had to discuss it here.

I know the title of the post has drawn you in, as you’re probably thinking “Uhh oh, did a Fantasy Baseball General just admitedly buy high and sell low? It’s time to find better fantasy advice elsewhere!” Well let’s take a look and decide if that is truly what happened, shall we?

Format: 12-team, 5×5 mixed roto league on Yahoo! with a 1300 innings pitched cap

Roster Slots: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN

Background: Currently in 2nd place, 6 pts behind 1st, 10 pts ahead of 3rd, 42 pts in hitting and 44 pts in pitching; Post-draft I projected that my team had the best offense by 10.5 points, but might need some pitching help.

The Trade:

I Give: Victor Martinez and Jeremy Bonderman

I Receive: Geovany Soto and Randy Wolf

                        VS

Before I go any further analyzing the trade, I wanted to note that this was actually proposed to me. I originally received a non-solicited offer of Manny Parra for Bonderman, which I declined and countered, asking for Wolf instead of Parra. My opponent then countered with the above. 

On the surface, this looks like a classic buy low, sell high….for him. On the same lines, this would seem to look like I was some newbie buying into Soto’s and Wolf’s hot start and selling V-Mart and Bonderman low. So let’s check out my thought process…

My primary goal as could be seen by the back and forth offers was to get rid of Bonderman. I recently wrote about my issues with Bonderman here, and he’s done nothing since to make me change my opinion. He’s currently sporting a disgusting 22/25 K/BB ratio in 41 innings, with an xFIP of 5.12, and I don’t think you could just chalk it up to a small sample size. So to get anything of value for him was important, as I really can’t see him providing much value anymore this season.

Randy Wolf is a pitcher I own in my other 3 leagues, so I was hoping to add him to this last team. I hate rooting for a player in just half my leagues (well 75% in this case) and then basically rooting against the same player in the others. I wrote about Wolf here as part of the Five Players series, so I was bullish before the season, assuming good health. His peripherals have been fantastic, even improving upon the step-up he showed last year before getting injured, and his xFIP of 3.40 matches up well with his actual ERA. He has shown good skills before and is in the perfect park to knock down all his fly balls, so I expect the sub-4.00 ERA to continue and think he’ll be a huge upgrade over Bonderman.

The V-Mart for Soto side was the only hang up for me, for obvious reasons. I discussed Soto here as a Leader in BABIP, and Patrick gave his bearish opinion before the season as well. So clearly something must have changed to make me feel comfortable enough that the downgrade to Soto wasn’t as much as the upgrade to Wolf. First, on the V-Mart end, he has 0 HRs in 95 ABs and his FB% has taken a plunge. Could his hamstring that sidelined him earlier in the season still be bothering him and affecting his power? It’s certainly possible. He’s still hitting for average, but that’s fueled by a .379 BABIP. Then again, his LD% is almost 29% so although that in itself is unsustainable, it does explain the high BABIP.

Next, and more importantly, is Soto. Nobody really knew what to make of his unbelievable 2007 minor league season. Most projections split the difference and figured some of the power increase was for real, but not enough to make him a surefire top 10 catcher. But so far this year, he has 6 HRs and an amazing 13 doubles in just 109 ABs. Is it safe to say yet that maybe his minor league power spike was real after all? Has he truly established a new level of performance? The early returns say absolutely yes, and it’s hard to argue that a 1.093 is a fluke. Given all this, I realized there is a much greater possibility that Soto matches or even exceeds V-Mart’s production this year than anyone ever thought possible pre-season.

So given the opportunity to unload Bonderman for a pitcher I already own in 3 leagues and really believe is a large upgrade, while “downgrading” at catcher which might end up not being a downgrade at all and even an upgrade, I figured I had to pull the trigger. Even if Soto slows down and V-Mart rebounds (which should happen), the difference between the 2 just isn’t as much as between Wolf and Bonderman the rest of the way.

Agree/disagree with my logic? Would you have accepted the offer? I’d love to hear your thoughts so keep the comments and e-mails coming!

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.