Today is HR/F day. Everybody cheer. My sympathies go out to those unfortunate Jake Peavy owners. Or, then again, maybe not. I’m actually smiling inside as a non-owner in all 4 of my leagues. Is that wrong? Hey, I didn’t receive any sympathy cards when my 12th player was injured in my auction league! Let’s take a look at the top 10 lists, shall we?

 
Yuck, this list is littered with crappy pitchers with poor skills. Before discussing the pitchers I highlighted, I just wanted to mention one thing: Javier Vazquez is good. Shame on you if you thought last year’s ERA was the fluke!

Other than Vazquez, Jurrjens seem to be the only one on the list actually posting solid skills. Not shown here is a GB rate over 50%. Although he won’t post an ERA below 3, I can see him maintaining a sub-4.00 ERA given his good skills, which are backed up by his minor league stats. I know I know, it’s not really going out on a limb saying a pitcher currently sporting a 2.82 ERA should end the year below 4. But lest we forget, Jurrjens is still a rookie and didn’t receive even half the hype as guys like Cueto, Scherzer, Lincecum, and Gallardo.

I’ve written about Carmona’s crazy K/BB ratio previously, but he still hasn’t imploded. It boggles my mind how this guy could strike out so few hitters and walk that many and have an ERA even below 4. Maybe if he had a GB rate of 100% could I see such a good ERA! Lucky for current owners, you apparently still have time to sell high. As a point of reference, his owner in my H2H league managed to trade him straight up for Corey Hart. Needless to say, I was not happy!

Dana Eveland’s surface ERA is definitely causing his owners who labeled him a sleeper to pat themselves on the back. But given his current skills, his ERA is headed up. His xFIP of 4.21 means he’ll still have a bit of value in shallow mixed leagues, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him if someone believes he’s a $10 pitcher.

 
Several familiar faces on this list. And since most of the non-familiar ones (new additions) are quite boring, I’m going to discuss the same guys once again! Just in case you didn’t listen to me the first 3 times.

I’m buying on Roy Oswalt. From a skills perspective, he’s actually pitching better than last year. The hip injury puts any buy low attempt on hold though, as you just never know how an injury will affect a pitcher or if it will linger. All of his metrics, velocities, pitch selection, etc, look normal, so I have to believe that the elevated HR/F rate is simply a result of bad luck.

Ughhhh Brett Myers. Has your velocity returned? How come you couldn’t reach even 90 MPH recently? What the heck is the problem? And apparently you were back into the low 90’s last night, yet you still sucked against the Nationals. What to do, what to do. I couldn’t be happy only owning him in 1 league, nope, I had to be all smart and sabermetricy and “buy low” on you a week ago by embarrassingly trading Zach Greinke for you and Rich Hill. Yup, I made that trade and didn’t even write about it. This is in the same league I traded Bonderman and V-Mart for Soto and Wolf, which actually so far has worked out based solely on Soto’s contributions since both pitchers continue to suck. At least I won’t look like a complete fool if I go 1 for 2.

Anyway, back to Myers- it’s all about the velocity here. If we could just get an explanation, all would be right with the world. His xFIP is still a solid 4.09, which proves he still possesses good skills, but the drop in velocity means that high HR/F might not be the result of bad luck. Though as soon as you hear his velocity is back for good, pounce.

And that brings us to everyone’s favorite pitcher, Johnny Cueto. Please, someone explain to me how a pitcher could have a 1.20 WHIP and 53/13 K/BB ratio with a 5.75 ERA. It’s as if he and Carmona’s ERAs have been switched. Maybe he isn’t Major League quality just yet as I’m sure Patrick will be quick to point out, but if that were the case, how come his K/BB ratio is so damn good?! Pitchers who aren’t of MLB quality don’t strike out 53 batters in 52 innings. So as I’ve been saying all along, I’m holding if I own him, and buying if I don’t. He was actually dropped in my H2H league the other day, but I was unfortunate enough to have a low waiver priority and couldn’t get him.

Oh, and if Josh Beckett’s value has dropped below his pre-season value in your league, go get him.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.