Today we’re back to taking a look at LOB%, or S% (strand rate) for you Baseball HQ’ers. This is another luck metric that the casual fan will always rationalize by arguing that the pitcher “just bears down with runners on base” or is a “clutch pitcher”. It is true that better pitchers should have a higher LOB% and worse pitchers a lower LOB%, but it is rare for a pitcher to finish the season higher than 80%. It is also very difficult to maintain such a high rate because there are so many other factors playing into the number, such as bullpen support, which has nothing to do with the starting pitcher’s skill level. With that said, let’s take a look at the leader and laggard boards…

 
Many of the biggest surprises thus far show up on this list. Well, now you know how these pitchers are doing it!

I’m sure 95% of the fantasy advice you read, whether it be from blogs, websites, or message boards, is telling you to sell high on Volquez. As we’ve discussed here recently, selling high is almost a complete myth. Everyone knows Volquez can’t maintain that ERA and no one wants to be the sucker who buys him high the moment all the walks he allows start to cross home plate. So I guess just hold and hope for the best! He’s become an extreme GB pitcher this year, so all we need is some improved control, and the expected implosion will likely never come.

Zack Greinke’s ERA still has some more rising to do. I don’t expect him to finish the season with an ERA much below 4 as his skills haven’t improved enough to make me change my pre-season projection for him.

If anyone in your league thinks Dice-K has become a top 5 pitcher or close to it, it’s time to talk trade. I think a player like him is one of the few examples where a sell high opportunity might truly exist. His control has been better his last 2 outings, and he gets the Royals next which should hopefully pump up his value further, but his skills have declined significantly from last year and he had a 4.40 ERA then. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, his poor control means there could be a lot of 2 and 3 run HRs in his future.

Weird season for Carlos Zambrano. He has suddenly found some control, easily posting the best BB/9 rate of his career so far. However, his K/9 is down for the 2nd year in a row and his average fastball velocity is down over 1 MPH from last year (surprise, surprise). The velocity drop marks the 3rd straight year of decline. Interesting to note that the velocities on his other pitches are all normal, so it’s possible that he has consciously taken something off his fastball in order to control it better, which has had the side effect of a decreased strike out rate.

 
I’d be more confident advising a buy on Derek Lowe if he didn’t complain of elbow tightness a couple of starts ago. We haven’t heard anything since though, so I have no idea if it’s still bothering him or not. His skills all seem to be in line with what we expected, though with a slight drop in GB%, increase in FB% and LD%, all negative things of course. Similar to Brett Myers, I’m not sure we could chalk up his current season ERA all to bad luck or if the injury (or loss of velocity in Myers’ case) is affecting him. Lowe also has a high BABIP, so lingering elbow problems seem like a logical explanation. Of course it could just be normal bad luck, which is what a look at these metrics is supposed to tell us! Either way, if healthy, we know what Lowe will give you as an extreme ground ball pitcher who has increased his strike out rate to over 6 the last 2 years. He was just dropped in my H2H league, which did not surprise me, and I gladly scooped him up, even having been like 9th in the waiver priority. 

Has the real Justin Verlander finally arrived? CC Sabathia’s bad pitcher clone packed his bags weeks ago, yet Verlander’s stayed a while longer. I read a fantastic article yesterday by Jason Grey (requires an Insider subscription) over at ESPN.com (I know, I know, calling a fantasy article at ESPN.com fantastic sounds like an oxymoron, but Jason, formerly of MastersBall.com, is for real) talking about Verlander and Bonderman. The summary version is that Verlander was struggling with his mechanics, which is what caused his velocity drop, but that he’s been making adjustments and is close to getting back on track. Jason believes that this really is what has plagued Verlander, and not a hidden injury, and the good Verlander should be back in the near future. If last night’s performance was any indication, it looks like his mechanics have been fixed and the real Verlander has returned. I refuse to claim a pitcher is back based on just 1 start, but it’s very possible that this could be your last chance to “buy low”.

Who’s that listed 4th on the list? That’s right, none other than our friend Johnny Cueto. I’ve talked enough about him, but here’s just another explanation for his terrible ERA, despite his excellent strikeout rate and K/BB ratio.

Last is the pitcher me and Patrick had a slight disagreement on in the comments of my previous BABIP article. Not only is Buehrle suffering from an elevated BABIP, but he’s stranding runners at the lowest rate of his career. Only once in his 7 previous full seasons has his LOB% been below 70%. He’s a guy who buying low might also actually work for.

A quick note on Ubaldo Jimenez- Although I’m still scared to death to draft a Rockies starting pitcher, he’s currently posting a 56% GB rate. He was a trendy deep sleeper in the pre-season, but he still walks way too many batters and of course Coors Field doesn’t help to hide his control issues. However, if he is ever able to improve his control, and maybe even get out of Colorado, he could be a real good one.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.