Carlos Zambrano pitched eight shutout innings yesterday to three-hit the Reds in a 3-0 Cubs victory.

Zambrano earned his fifth win of the season in the outing, walked three, and struck out three. There were many warnings about Zambrano’s prospects for fantasy owners this year (and some local bust-speculating), so what’s the deal with his strong start? So far he’s posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and has a K/9 of 6.22 and BB/9 of 2.29. The strikeout rate is his lowest in the past five years, and it’s part of a continuing downward trend. The walk rate, so far, is at least an improvement over last year’s 4.20 BB/9, but he has never posted numbers this low–3.47/9 in 2005 was his best walk rate year.

What’s more, Zambrano is pitching with a .273 BABIP, near the lowest mark of any of his seasons, but Big Z has only posted a BABIP above .300 in one of his eight major league seasons. His xFIP is 3.95, which means his xFIP-ERA (which Mike walked us through yesterday) is 2.15. It has been said by other, more astute analysts before, but Zambrano is riding on an almost incredible streak of good luck, and whereas he could once be reasonably claimed to have the good skill set to back it up, recent seasons show the possibility that he could be defenseless against regression. His strong start shows it hasn’t caught up with him yet.