Eric Hinske hit a three-run home run to help keep Tampa Bay on top in a 7-3 win over Texas yesterday. Hinske has hit a great pace to start the season, but can he keep it up?

Hinske is hitting .257 with 9 HR and 25 RBI so far, and went .290/.402/1.011 in the month of April. He’s on pace to hit more HR than his last season as a full-time player, the 15 he hit each year in 2005 and 2004 for the Blue Jays. His BABIP right now is .250, which might seem low, but it’s about even with last year’s .254, and he’s had as many sub-.300 BABIP seasons in his career as he has had over .300 (three each).

What’s striking about this year is that his strikeout rate is the lowest it has ever been (16.4%, compared to 29.0% last year and 28.5% and 25.4% the years before that), and his slugging percentage is the highest (.529, with the next-closest his .487 in 2006). His batted ball percentages aren’t out of line with what he’s done before (his LD%, at 18.1, is up from last year’s 10.6, but not out of his previous range), which leads me to believe that he’s benefiting a lot from that depressed strikeout rate, which lets his power shine when he hits the ball. I would assume his bat will continue to cool as the K rate returns to a level more in line with his previous seasons.