Carlos Beltran has now reached base in 32 consecutive games after going two-for-four with a run and a walk yesterday in an 8-4 victory for the Mets over the Dodgers. How well is he hitting overall?

After hitting .200 in April, Beltran is hitting .311 in May to bring his season average to .264, while keeping his OBP at .364 and .368 in the two months, respectively. Though he’s hitting better now after his poor April, Beltran has only four home runs so far, a far cry from last year’s 33 and the 41 in the year before. If we apply some of the tools of analysis that Mike highlighted yesterday, we can see that his walk rate (14.2%) is a few percentage points higher than last year (11.1%), though a bit less than the year before (15.7%); his K rate (18.1%) is down from those years (20.0% and 19.4%); and his BABIP is doing better at a .305 compared to the previous two .293 and .268.

He’s hitting doubles at about the same pace as previous years, with 15 so far this year (and 33 and 38 previously), but the big difference is seen in his batted ball percentages. Beltran is hitting 47.2% ground balls, the highest in his career (last two: 38.4% and 36.5%), and only 28.9% fly balls, the lowest in his career (42.6% and 46.6%). On top of that, the fly balls he does hit only have a 8.7% HR/FB rate, way down from the previous 17.1% and 21.1%.

Seeing that his ground ball and fly ball numbers are so different from the few previous years, it’s hard for me to say what to expect going forward in the season. Beltran’s HR/FB rate is probably going to return to something closer to his career levels, since he doesn’t seem to have any lack of power to hit doubles, but if he doesn’t hit more fly balls overall, he’s not likely to reach the HR totals of his previous years. A few weeks ago Beltran said he had tweaked his approach at the plate, taking a “more relaxed” approach to the ball, so perhaps his high-ground-ball, low-fly-ball batted ball percentages are leftovers from an April in which he was taking swings in a way that didn’t work for him, and his new approach might help bring both numbers back in line with his norms as the season goes on.

That’s a lot of speculation, though, so it’s hard to say for sure what to expect. But with the numbers he’s posted so far, it looks like he’s set to hit some more home runs through the end of the year, though maybe not a great many more.