After being mauled in the last installment of TACOM and needing to take a break for personal reasons (as well as needing to clear my thoughts for such terrible suggestions) TACOM makes its mighty return to The Fantasy Baseball Generals. This week promises to step up to the table offering up an overrated and underrated player as well as a player to acquire via free agency.

General DiCaprio can certainly give you advice on how to trade, what strategy to take when beginning negotiations and how to take over Congo in Risk. For myself, I cannot, as I typically alienate myself from other owners by calling them out either at the draft or at some point in the season. However, I can suggest players whom one should ‘buy low’ or ’sell high’ on, which is exactly what I intend to do this week.

Sell High

For my first player in the sell high category, I want to pick a player who has outperformed his initial projection, but not by too much that it is an obvious sell high scenario. I want to pick a that had trade value regardless of his performance, but due to an impressive start has increased this value.

Miguel Tejada

I understand that Tejada has done this before, he has had above career average numbers in line drive rate (LD%) and consequently batting average of balls in play (BABIP), however, Miguel’s draining power is becoming a trend and a drop off in other areas should not surprise anyone. Thus, it should come as no ones surprise to see Tejada hit below .300 for the remainder of the season with minimal power.

At this point, Tejada is quietly having a career year.  For a player in his early to mid (to late?) 30’s a renaissance season is difficult to believe. However, what you may be able to do in a trade, is remind the owner that this season is no fluke, that he has hit like this as recently as 2006.

A trade for Tejada could be made for a Derek Jeter or Michael Young. In addition to this, negotiating an improvement at another position, say a Mariano Rivera for Joe Nathan could easily be done.

Buy Low

In similar fashion to the sell high player, a manager does not want to go after an obvious buy low player. At this point, enough people follow batted ball data, even if they do not, they probably skim mainstream articles which predict a ‘return to form’. Traditionally these articles focus on obvious players or players that come without flaws. The player also needs to not be in the midst of a resurgence, like David Ortiz. The ship sailed on acquiring him at a discount two or three weeks ago.

Mark Teixeira

I’m going to go out here and say, ‘there is something wrong with Teixeira’. Either that, or there is something in the water in Atlanta that forces players in contract years to fall off the face of the earth. Was Giles in a contract year when his fall occurred? Take a look at the chart below and the devastating fall off in Teixeira’s fly ball rate and the  increase in ground balls.

I am, however, not entirely alarmed. While Teixeira’s BABIP is at a career low (and 24 points below his career average) his contract rate has improved to the tune of 6% higher then his career average. In addition to this, Teixeira is drawing more walks then his career average suggests. Simply put, this appears to be a player who is pressing and is failing to make his usual sound contact.

As you can see in the chart above, Teixeira had a similar drop off in FB% and consequently an increase in GB% during the 2005 season. This resulted in a terrible month of July which he invariably bounced back from to post two more typical Teixeira months.

As an owner, you may be able to trade for Teixeira with an overachieving youngster like Joey Votto, Casey Kotchman, or Conor Jackson. Keep in mind, I am not asserting that each of the aforementioned trio will fall off the face of the earth, rather that Teixeira will be able to bounce back and outperform each one.

Free Agent

Brad Hawpe

This is a preemptive strike. Hawpe is being dropped by the masses by the day. This is also a move that comes with a warning label. You need a DL or Bench slot essentially ‘open’ for Hawpe. That is, if you are like me and are not moving players in and out of your starting lineup and use your bench as a ‘wait and see’ position, then Hawpe is an ideal player to pick up.

What this season has come down to so far for Hawpe is that he simply is not getting any luck. His batted ball data is essentially on par with career rates. All but his BABIP and home runs per fly ball (HR/FB). In fact, both of these are at unsustainably low rates. Hawpe has been a superior hitter at home then he has been at Coors field. However, it is interesting to note that he has been ‘less lucky’ at home then he has been on the road, something that is traditionally equal for Hawpe.

At 61% owned in ESPN leagues, Hawpe is undeniably underowned. If you have injury issues, obviously you stay away from him, but if you have a DL slot or a bench spot that you are using on Barry Bonds, take a chance on Brad Hawpe.