If you missed the news, Rotoworld is reporting that Angels pitching prospect Nick Adenhart will be called up tonight to make his major league debut. As fantasy owners scramble to blindly add him or rush to put in a waiver claim for you unlucky Yahoo leaguers, the question you should actually be asking yourself is “What can we expect from him this year?” Now he might only be up until Lackey returns, but let’s just pretend he’s guaranteed a spot in the rotation for as long as he pitches well.

As Patrick has written several times before (unfortunately I can’t find exactly which articles), Adenhart’s promotion and immediate pick-up by fantasy owners is a perfect example of MLB teams and fantasy owners alike looking strictly at the sparkling 0.87 ERA and ignoring the underlying skills. In 31 Triple- A innings so far this year, Adenhart has posted a putrid 19/15 K/BB ratio, so his control has been poor and he isn’t striking enough hitters out to offset this. The one positive going for him is his always high GB% which is at 51% this year and has been over 50% in ‘06 and ‘07.

So what’s driving the 0.87 ERA? Simple- he has yet to allow a homer and his BABIP is just .207. The astute fantasy owner and true General would notice how much luck has contributed to that low ERA and conclude that he’s clearly not ready to succeed at the Major League level. If you’re wondering about his historical performance, his 2007 in Double-A wasn’t very impressive either. In 153 innings, his BB/9 was 3.6 and K/9 only 6.8. Although his BABIP was a rather high .333, his respectable 3.65 ERA was fueled by a 3% HR/F, which is obviously unsustainable. In fact, even in 2006 his HR/F was 1% and 2% at 2 different levels, so his performance has always been helped by some good fortune.

I’d pass on him in all mixed leagues, unless you’re in like a 30-teamer, and add him in non-keeper AL-Only leagues strictly as trade bait (assuming he was already owned in AL-Only keeper leagues).

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.