This week we talk about what non-ace, emerging pitchers we think can keep up their hot starts and continue to provide top value. Some players mentioned by the Generals are Dana Eveland, Jair Jurrjens and John Danks.

Mike Podhorzer-

Edinson Volquez- Of course I have to name the pitcher I own in all 4 of my leagues. Besides his walk rate, a big concern was his fly ball tendency. Well through 42 1/3 innings, he has silenced the critics by inducing grounders at a dramatically improved 55% rate. I have no idea what he’s doing differently or how sustainable it is, but I know the strikeouts are real, so if he could keep that GB% over 50% all year, even if he doesn’t improve his control, then he’s guaranteed to blow his pre-season projections away and post an ERA well below 4. His xFIP is currently 3.37, so obviously he’s been lucky (no one is skilled enough to post a 1.06 ERA!) but it proves that he has truly been pitching very well.

Zack Greinke- It’s funny to include him when I just completed my 2nd trade giving him up. I now have rid him from both the teams I owned him. He’s still good enough to pitch well all year, but really he’s only improved his GB%, which is what might keep his ERA under 4 for the season. Other than that, his skills aren’t any better than projected, so I’ve only slightly increased my expectations on him for the season, rather than dramatically

Rob McQuown-

When the Dan Haren deal was made, I quipped that I wasn’t sure that Haren would put up better “raw” stats than Dana Eveland, and I see no reason to stop believing in Eveland now.  By “raw”, I meant baseball-related, not roto-specific (i.e. WHIP is much less important than it is in Roto), and not considering park or league adjustments.  If you think back to the environment at the time, that was clearly an almost absurdly outlandish comment.  In fact, fellow Generals contributor Jeremy Tomasulo had Eveland in an NL roto league, and he was telling me that Eveland was regarded as little more than whipped topping.

So, I do think Eveland will continue do well in Oak-town, though I expected him to have defensive standout Eric Chavez manning the hot corner when I made that comment, and for a groundballing lefty like him, that can make a big difference.  He won’t help your WHIP much, but in real life, that’s less of a problem for him, since the base runners are due to walks, which hurt him a lot less than the norm, due to fewer HRs and more GDP’s.

On the other side of the coin, I traded away Shawn Marcum and Edwin Jackson for very little in my AL Roto league this offseason (it’s a keeper league, with very limited freezers), meaning: a) I liked them enough to grab them originally, b) I didn’t think they would do as well as they’ve done so far - I am regretting those trades now, though I do think that neither will remain quite as good.

Kevin Orris-

There are quite a few names that come to mind.  I don’t think any of these guys can hold ERA’s under 3 all year, but will continue to supply some of the better pitching in the league.

Ervin Santana has been spectacular this year and holding a 6-0 record with a 2.02 ERA.  He doesn’t have as many strikeouts as some of the other guys to follow, but has a solid .88 WHIP.

Aaron Cook is another guy that I’m pretty high on.  So far, Cook 7 his 8 starts have been “quality.”  Cook’s WHIP has been improving every year, and if he were able to hold a 1.13 WHIP for the entire season, he could very well be my pick for Cy Young.

James Shields (who went unreasonably late in drafts still this year) has been spectacular.  If you take away his 5/3 start against Boston, Shields could arguably be the best pitcher in the AL East this year. 

My problem with Volquez is that his WHIP is higher than his ERA, which could result from a variety of things, but luck factors into that a lot.  

Andrew Cleary-

My vote goes for John Danks. He has been a little wobbly in a few of his starts so far, but he has a good enough K rate to keep the 3.18 ERA of his 3-3 start going, though I bet his 1.11 WHIP will be trending upward.

The exciting thing about this year for Danks is that he has effectively flipped his ground ball and fly ball percentages: in 2007 he gave up 34.8% GB and 45.8% FB; so far in 2008, 49.2% GB and 33.9% FB. There has been a lot of talk in White Sox-land that he has been working on a cutter fastball under the influence of Mark Buehrle, and it looks like it’s making a real positive difference. Danks is being helped by a little luck, with a .281 BABIP and 0.45 HR/9, but I think his solid 2008 is going to be fueled by his strong skill set (6.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, his metamorphosis into a ground ball pitcher) more so than his luck.

Brandon Heikoop-

Chien Ming Wang - Wang has always been somewhat of an anomaly, providing a ridiculously low strikeout rate, with outstanding success. Apparently Wang has worked hard on his change up and his slider-fastball combination was already one of the best in the game. Currently Wang is being fortunate from his home run per fly ball rate, but his percent is normally low in that category, so it is nothing that truly sticks out.

Jair Jurrjens - Before draft day, I thought highly of Jurrjens. Upon further inspection, I worried about his walk rate. Apparently I forgot that he moved to the NEW Junior Circuit. I worry about Jurrjens HR/FB rate, but being a pitcher who owns similar stuff to Wang, it is entirely possible he falls below league average in this category. The innings spike is also of worry going forward.

John Danks - What happens when a pitcher comes to Chicago and masters a cut fastball? Ask Esteban Loaiza. Danks has, in similar fashion, added a cut fastball to his repertoire and has taken an incredible leap as a pitcher. Always one to own a nice strikeout rate, Danks now has a pitch that hitters can hit, but can hardly handle. While it is early, noting the major decrease in fly balls and thus HR/FB gives me reason to believe Danks should continue close to the success he is currently having.

Brian Joura-

Cliff Lee- I think Cliff Lee will continue to be a solid pitcher all season.  A lot of his struggles last year can be blamed on his trouble versus lefty batters, who posted a .917 OPS against him in 2007.  Obviously, they won’t continue to have a .290 OPS like they do right now, but from 2004-2006, lefties had .711, .800 and .728 OPS numbers and if he can match that he’ll be a good number two starter the rest of the way.

I’m also bullish on Edinson Volquez.  I know people are concerned about his strand rate, but that fastball and changeup are both plus-plus Major League pitches.  If his command holds up, the sky’s the limit.  The other pitcher I think we can count on for a big year is Ervin Santana.  The home/road split was not a one-year thing last year, but the size was unbelievable.  If it was another metric, we might even say it was unsustainable.  Early results on the road are encouraging.  Overall, he’s also not walking anyone and doing a fine job of keeping the ball in the park.

Jeremy Tomasulo-

As Rob said - I have always been a Dana Eveland fan and I think that he is going to be a good pitcher for a while.  However, I can see him coming down a bit this year as I still think that Oakland will drop before the end of the year.  if you are in a carryover/keeper league, I would grab onto Eveland if you are able to.

If I had to grab and run with one surprise starter this year, I would take my chances on one of the Florida pitchers - maybe Scott Olsen.  The magic of Miami may be starting to shine again - although I was expecting it next year as their 6-year pattern would dictate (1997, 2003, 2009?).  The Marlins have some good young pitching and a very forgiving home park.  The defense is a little underrated as well.  It would not shock me to see someone like Olsen in the league leaders by the end of the year.