Off to a disappointing start, this week the Generals look at what we think Jeter will do the rest of the year.

One of my predictions on various radio shows during the pre-draft lead up was that Jeter would be very disappointing and would struggle to reach double digits in HR and steals. Now that he is off to a slow start, but has seen some improvement in May, the question arises as to whether we should continue to look at him as a flop this year or will he rebound.  My view is that he will continue to struggle and will look like a flop by season’s end. Here is what other Generals had to say.

Mike Podhorzer-I would consider Jeter a “sell” at this point, if you could still get pre-season value for him. His ISO is at the lowest of his career, he’s sporting a career worst walk rate, and he’s hitting 60% of balls on the ground (though he’s always had high GB%’s, and this actually might be a good thing since he isn’t exactly a power hitter) with only a 17% line drive rate. At almost age 34, this might be the beginning of the decline. His batting average was always propped up by a high BABIP, which is still above average currently at .322. One would assume his speed is in decline, and with the low line drive rate and drop in power, we might not see another .300 average. His HR/F has also dropped off, as has his doubles rate, suggesting 10 HRs could be his new ceiling.

Rob alludes to another important point that I had noticed with all the Yankees. They just aren’t stealing as much this year, and Jeter has been no exception, having only attempted 3 steals all season, compared to 23 last year. Given the managerial change, this could certainly just be attributed to Girardi’s philosophy and something that won’t change the rest of the season. Jeter’s steals have always been all over the place, up one year, down the next, but like his HRs, 10 SBs might be his ceiling this year.  He still obviously has solid value as it’s not easy to find an MI who hits .300, with 10 HRs and SBs, solid RBI and RUN totals, but I don’t think he will post stats for the balance of the year that would match his pre-season value.

Andrew Cleary–I can’t add too much more insight to the analysis Mike and Rob put together on Jeter, but I think that if he is collapsing, he’s doing it slowly, like air weakly escaping from a balloon, which means he still has some value for a team, in that he’s still capable of at least fair-to-good numbers this year. It’s not great, or particularly pretty, but especially since this year has seen some bizarre injury-driven flux among shortstops, with Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Michael Young, Troy Tulowitzki, Tulowitzki’s replacement Clint Barmes, Erick Aybar, etc., etc., all missing playing time due to injuries. It all makes me think that Jeter’s otherwise-sagging value this year is being propped up by the absence of a handful of the other top-ranked shortstops.

Rob McQuown–At the time Patrick suggested this question, Jeter is hitting .314, with 2 HR and 1 SB.  He has scored 21 runs and driven in 21.  I’m not sure what people’s expectations were for him before the season, but Baseball Prospectus projected .297 - 9 - 71, with 14 steals and 97 runs scored.  All things considered, that projection is almost exactly right except for steals (more BA, RBI, fewer runs scored).  For whatever reason, the Yankees have stolen only 14 bases in 2008, significantly less than every other team except the White Sox (13).

In the offseason, I traded Jeter away from a keeper team, largely scared by the BP projections and some looking into the frequency with which 33+ - year-old shortstops decline precipitously (I was trying to evaluate the Orlando Cabrera acquisition by the White Sox at the time).  Honestly, I thought that the BP projection of approximately .300-10-70, 15 SB, 100 runs scored was pessimistic, but better a year too early, I always say. 

Looking back to 2006, Hanley Ramirez stole 51 bases, and Alfredo Amezaga stole 20.  But Girardi didn’t give the green light very often to the others, with none of the other Marlins exceeding 9 SB.  One could argue that since these other Fish went only 39-31, they weren’t really very good thieves, and shouldn’t get green lights very often, but mostly Joe ran with his leadoff man only.  This trend seems to be continued with the Yankees, with 6 of the 14 SB coming from leadoff men this year.  I guess I’d be actively shopping Jeter at this point, hoping someone else would see him as a potential SB source.  But a .300 hitter with 100 runs scored (call it 70+ for the remainder of the season) who doesn’t hurt a team in HR and RBI isn’t exactly a sore spot if a decent deal cannot be found.

Brandon Heikoop (Ed note-the one guy in the whole industry who picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central This year-great call so far)–I think it depends what you ‘need’ Jeter for and how your team is constructed. Obviously Jeter is underperforming based on what his ADP and current ranking are, however Jeter is always over valued at drafts to begin with. In addition, those who drafted Jeter had to expect somewhat of a fall off considering his age, and the recent late-career resurgence he has discovered.

All that being said, one can still expect Jeter to finish with 100 Runs, 70 RBIs, 10 HRs, 10 SBs and a .300 batting average. If you expected more, then yes ’sell Jeter’. If you expected less, then ‘buy Jeter’.

However, it also goes down to what your team ‘needs’. If you are a team that is set for power and steals, Jeter is ideal. If you own an Adam Dunn or other batting average leach, Jeter is again ideal. Personally, I prefer speed from my middle infield slots, I feel power is over valued in those areas. With that in mind, Jeter is an ideal player to buy low, as it is nearly certain that he will bounce back to more ‘typical’ Jeter numbers.

Brian Joura–On April 25^th, Jeter was batting .260/.286/.342 and only delivering RBIs.  In May, Jeter has a .300/.378/.450 line, which is basically what he hit last year.  He’s not going to hit 20 homers or steal 30 bases again but he’s not going to hit .260, either.  Jeter’s going to be a plus in three categories and he’s not going to kill you in either power or steals.  There are undoubtedly owners unhappy with his performance and he could be a good pickup providing you don’t expect (or pay for) big SB or HR numbers.