I recently completed a trade in my twelve-team mixed league that I thought might provide a good basis for discussion of what kind of thinking we all put into trades. With that in mind, let me try to answer your “What were you thinking?!” questions when I explain why I just traded away Jim Thome for Johnny Cueto.

First, I figured these two players were similar in a few certain ways, in that they have an underlying appeal despite some troubling surface appearances. In Thome’s case, the appeal is his consistent power, and the trouble is his increasing age and slow start to year. In Cueto’s case, the appeal is his blazing debut and peripherals, and the trouble his weirdly high ERA. I would also say that Cueto’s young age represents a slightly higher possible risk than Thome’s, since I could see many possible “flame-out” scenarios for a great young pitcher like him, opposed to the injury risk and gradual decline in production from Thome. Of course, Cueto’s age also gives him huge upside value compared to Thome. (For more on either of these players, it’s worth checking out Patrick’s recent take on Thome, and Mike’s discussion of Cueto in two of his recent Leaders & Laggards posts, here and here)

So I could maybe say that I got a “good deal” out of the trade, given Cueto’s possiblly higher future value than Thome’s. But rather than stop there, I want to explore the full story, as most trades are going to be “good” or “bad” more in relation to what they provide a team than to how objectively valuable each player is rated. In my case, the trade is all about preparing for the post-season endgame, when I think Cueto will be much more valuable on my team than Thome, particularly as a bargaining chip.

My fantasy team looks to be shaping up as a third-or-fourth-place playoff contender (the top six teams in this head to head league go to the playoffs), and I’m sure I’ll be needing one or two more excellent players to truly compete for the championship, since I don’t want to rely entirely on luck to win in the post-season. Cueto might be that excellent player who gives me the edge, but in case he isn’t, I expect I can still trade him to a keeper-minded owner before the start of the playoffs, perhaps to a team out of the contention that is looking to build a roster of stars for next year. I doubt I could do the same with Thome, who, if he’s doing well, would likely only be valuable to teams preparing for the playoffs (in other words, my competition).

So that’s the reasoning that leads me to think Cueto is more valuable to my team than Thome, though I think both are players who will improve over the course of the rest of the season. I’m sure you disagree with me on some of these points, so I hope you’ll add your thoughts below–I think it’s always fun to talk trading.

One last thought: though I had decided some time ago that I wanted to shop Thome around, I knew it would be hard to find a trading partner in the league, as most people seem to be down on him in general, and even more so in this league, since I picked him in the thirteenth round of the draft, around the time when Bengie Molina, Placido Polanco, and J.R. Towles were being picked by other teams. The difficult trade environment made it all the more important for me to stick to “the basics” of trading, and indeed this trade was the culmination of a few weeks of back-and-forth, in-person discussion with the other owner, who I originally hoped would be amenable to a Thome trade since he was an integral part of the other owner’s strong third place finish last year.