Fantasy Baseball Generals

Fantasy Baseball Warfare is a great matter to a nation; it is the ground of death and of life; it is the way of survival and of destruction, and must be examined.–Sun Tzu

Can You Work the Lineup to Your Fantasy Advantage?

June 26th, 2008 · 7 Comments

Andrew Cleary

With three Rays on my fantasy team, I was the happy recipient of a healthy portion of the many runs, home runs, and RBI in their 15-3 win over the Marlins yesterday. I got a similar boost from their 13-4 win over the Angels on June 9th. The two recent examples have me thinking: is it a viable strategy to pursue multiple players in a single lineup in order to capture as many stats as possible from one baseball team?

To start with, I would assume that a lot of the benefit of such a strategy depends on which lineup we’re talking about. A number of players on the red-hot Rays or the top-of-the-league Cubs (an example I’ll come back to in a minute) would intuitively seem to produce more for your fantasy team than a collection of players from, say, the Giants or the Nationals.

But in the case of the Rays, the three players I’m talking about–Dioner Navarro, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford–are players most managers would likely want on their team anyway. And, taking the two previously mentioned games as examples, they help not only by being star performers, but by batting together in a very successful offense.

Yesterday, Carl Crawford hit a three-run home run and a solo home run, and knocked in a fifth RBI on a sacrifice grounder. Longoria hit a two-run home run and an RBI single, and scored on a Gabe Gross single. Navarro scored on a fielder’s choice. Altogether, the three gave my team five runs (out of a team total of fifteen), three home runs (out of four), and eight (of thirteen) RBI. On June 9th, those three provided nine of thirteen runs, three of four home runs, and seven of thirteen RBI.

This effect (which, I’ll grant before I’ve tested it, might be illusory) might be a benefit limited to head-to-head leagues, where a big one-day boost can keep a team just enough ahead to win a few categories, compared to roto or points leagues, where the effect of such spikes would be expected to even out over the course of the season. But for now I’ll stay with the current examples from my league.

My team has a current total of 353 R, 91 HR, 371 RBI, and 52 SB. Of those, my three Rays have produced 103 R, 24 HR, 108 RBI, and 22 SB, or a little less than a third of each category–maybe what you would expect from a third of the nine roster slots we use for batters in this league. To take another example, there is a team in the league with four Cubs batters: Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Mark DeRosa. That team’s totals are 383 R, 85 HR, 359 RBI, and 55 SB, of which the Cubs have provided 172 R, 48 HR, 184 RBI, and 8 SB, or about half in all categories (except steals), from a little less than half the roster.

One last example: another team, with 342 R, 71 HR, 292 RBI, and 37 SB, has four Tigers–Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson–who have together provided 142 R, 31 HR, 139 RBI, and 16 SB. Again, a little less than half, about what you might expect from a little less than half of the roster.

These quick tests seem to show that there’s not necessarily an inherent benefit to having fantasy players from the same team. All the same, it would help to have a look at more data: not just from one league, and not just from one portion of the season. Likewise, to isolate any possible effect of owning “fantasy teammates,” I would want to take the production from a group of players on the same team and compare it to the production of the same number of random players on the same team. I will dig deeper into both of these considerations over the next week or so.

To go back to the original question, whether it is a viable strategy to pursue multiple players in a single lineup, I would guess any effect that might be found would amount to a “why not?” final consideration when evaluating players of a similar value (and not a recommendation to add inferior players simply for their presence on a “good team”)–why not add the one you happen to have a teammate of already on your team?

Anyway, rather than simply rely on such gut feelings or hypotheses, I’m hoping to test the question with some more analysis. Also, I hope the inchoate nature of my thinking on this hasn’t kept me from adequately explaining my thought process. But in the meantime, I’ll pose the questions to you: do you think there may be benefits to loading up with players from the same lineup? Are there better ways to test for the existence of such benefits?

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7 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Hiram // Jun 26, 2008 at 11:30 am

    Very Interesting post , My main concern with having 3 or 4 players in the same lineup is team slumps . I currently have Figgins and Tori Hunter. Should I trade for Guerrero and Kotchman ?

  • 2 Carefree // Jun 26, 2008 at 11:32 am

    I had 4 Blue Jays on my team 2 seasons ago (when they were scoring runs but had no pitching), I had Rios, Wells, Glaus, and Overbay - the 2,3,4,5 hitters in that lineup.

    1 good game and I was on the way to winning my H2H matchup. Especially when they slaughtered my opponents pitcher.

    I don’t think it’s better than having guys on multiple teams who produce, but it sure is fun to watch in person.

    Ahhh, good times.

  • 3 Ron // Jun 26, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    Well, I’ve got a collection of Phillies on my first place team in a 12-team mixed league–Utley, Howard, and Burrell. But, my success is probably due more to the fact that Utley is going nuts, Burrell is way out-performing where I drafted him, and I was able to “buy low” on Howard in April. But, it’s killing me because I am a Braves fan.

  • 4 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 27, 2008 at 5:49 am

    Obviously in Roto leagues, it doesn’t matter whatsoever what teams your players are on. It only might matter in H2H leagues as a team could face a tough slate of pitchers one week, causing those players to have poor weeks and hurting your chances of winning the week.

    But that just gets offset by the weeks your players face bad pitching and have a great week. And then that’s offset by the random distribution of stats on a weekly basis that Patrick has talked a lot about in his experts league.

    So the bottom line is that there are so many variables and factors playing into week to week performances that there’s really only one thing to worry about- get good players!

  • 5 Luca // Jun 27, 2008 at 10:49 am

    This was a very interesting article, and it brought up many topics. I agree with the comment by Mr. Podhorzer in regard to aquiring the best players, regardless of team.

    The variation from week-to-week in H2H leagues will just get widened by having all players on one team, and while you could have the same record as a team with little variation from week-to-week, as an owner it is easier to manage a somewhat consistent team, as flaws in categories are recurrent.

  • 6 Stevie // Jun 29, 2008 at 8:07 pm

    I think logic would dictate that “putting all the eggs in one basket” might not be the best option, although the law of average does it work itself out eventually.

    As one of the previous writers mentioned, the effect might be more pronounced in a H2H lead. This is probably especially risky in the playoff, when blowing away your opponents means far less than the team underperforming on a off-week.

  • 7 Patrick DiCaprio // Jun 30, 2008 at 6:01 am

    I think Mike hit it on the head here. There is so much noise in terms of the fluctuation that the benefits of leverage when the team is hot will probably balance out when the team is cold.

    That said though, there IS one situation where it probably has value and that is exactly with a team like the Rays. As the team goes, so go the players; so when a team is overperforming and it appears that it isn’t a fluke you may be able to get unanticipated value from Andrew’s strategy.

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