In a stroke of luck, a few weeks ago I picked up Morrow in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League, and now am reaping the benefits. Can he maintain his current performance, and is there any chance of him losing his job?

So far Morrow has clearly been very lucky, not that I am complaining mind you. He has a 100% left on base percentage, which means none of the batters he put on base have scored. Normally it was thought that strand rates regress to the 70% range, but recent research has shown that relief pitchers can and do keep up very high strand rates in many instances. There are a number of reasons for this, of course, but no one is keeping up a 100% rate.

What would be reasonable? I think anything in the 80% range is reasonable. A strand rate of 80% is de riguer for top closers, plus or minus a few percentage points. His huge strikeout rate is a big factor for obvious reasons. Right now there are almost 100 pitchers with strand rates of 80% or higher. Of the 26 pitchers with double digit saves 14 have strand rates of 80% or higher. Though he has undoubtedly been very lucky, the regression may not be a large one. 

Despite this good fortune, his perfomance is in no way dictated by luck; this is not Gavin Floyd we are talking about. His “balance of year” projection at Baseball HQ is not that rosy with an ERA over 4, but they are also projecting a strand rate of 71%. I think that is way too low, and am willing to gamble and go out on a limb and say it will be in the 80% range going forward.

Morrow has an 0.90 ERA but his xERA is an excellent 2.68. He is striking out 13.5 batters per nine. He is only walking 3.2 batters per nine. His hit rate is a solid but not unreasonable 27%. His Base Performance Value according to Baseball HQ is a lofty 167.  The BPV is essentially a measure of the pitcher’s skills distilled into one number. The baseline for successful closers is generally 100, so Morrow is far in excess of what is needed to be a good closer.

Morrow has become what I had hoped Juan Cruz in Arizona would become last year. The take away from Morrow is that though he has been fortunate, his skills are for real, his improvement is for real and he will, barring some disaster, maintain a spot near the top of the second tier of closers with a chance to break into the top tier.