Today I’m back looking at the leaders & laggards of home runs per fly ball rate (HR/F). This is a very important metric because obviously a home run is guaranteed to score at least one run, so getting lucky or unlucky here will have a big impact on a pitcher’s ERA. The usual caveats do apply though in which home ball park plays a role in these numbers. For example, a pitcher in San Diego will usually put up a HR/F ratio below the league average of around 10%-11%, whereas a pitcher in Philadelphia will usually post a higher than league average ratio.

Tim Lincecum- A casual glance at his ERA would lead many to believe that this is the ultra breakout season everyone knew he was capable of. However, his K/9 is slightly down from last year, although that comes with an improved walk rate, and his GB% has dropped almost 5%. So in reality, he’s really not pitching any better than last year when he posted a 4.00 ERA. Though, that ERA was inflated due to a low strand rate so it really should have been in the mid 3’s, which is where I expect Timmah’s ERA to finish this year, as his 3.68 xFIP attests.

Dustin McGowan- I hate, hate, hate to admit it, but he’s been a disappointment so far. A drop in strike outs, an increase in walks, and the exciting ground ball rate he posted last year of 53% has fallen back to 46%. We know he has the ability to improve those skills, and his pitch selection and velocities are all normal (in fact, his average fastball velocity is actually up from last year! a rare occurence these days), so I wouldn’t trade him or anything. He’s capable of going on a dominating run at a moment’s notice.

Dana Eveland- Looks like the party is coming to an end as his control is just not good enough given the sub-par strike out rate. He’s still a solid groundball inducer, at 48%, but I don’t think it’s enough to keep his ERA below 4.

Edinson Volquez- Why am I writing about him for the 80th time? Just in case you missed all 79 previous comments! I’m still waiting for his GB% to start dropping, and it hasn’t, which is an excellent, excellent sign. Whatever he did to induce more grounders, it’s obviously working and is a big reason for his success so far. That walk rate is obviously still scary and he might tire down the stretch, but I still don’t believe you could get enough value in return to make trading him worth it. Pitchers with 10.7 K/9 rates don’t grow on trees. If it means anything, I haven’t offered him in a trade or shopped him at all in any of my 4 leagues yet. Although I can’t be sure, I figure most people still don’t fully believe and won’t give me what I’d demand to make it worthwhile. But, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him if I do get an offer I deem worth the risk/reward.

Carlos Zambrano- A K/9 drop for the 2nd straight year, which was one of the warning signs many analysts pointed to, but he’s also posting a career best walk rate. Is he taking the Daniel Cabrera route of consciously changing his approach to show better control? Sure seems like it. His fastball velocity is down 1 MPH from last year, but all his other pitches are the same velocity as always, so it’s very possible that he has made the decision to take something off the fastball in order to control it better. The xFIP metric is still unimpressed, however, as it sits at 4.27. Then again, Zambrano is one of those pitchers who always posts ERAs better than his peripherals suggest.

Ervin Santana- Don’t you love it when a player follows up a career worst year by having a career best year? You swear him off in fantasy leagues, and then he comes back to bite you in the butt. The key to Ervin’s surprise start is all in the improved control. The strike outs are about the same as last year and he’s still giving up a ton of fly balls as always. As long as that improved control is sustained though, he’ll continue to be successful, but with a career BB/9 around 3, I’m not sure how likely he is to keep it up. If he starts walking more hitters and his HR/F regresses toward league average, watch out! Last is something I just noticed- his fastball velocity is actually up almost 2 MPH from last year and 1 MPH from 2006, which is obviously a great sign, but you’d think it would have led to an increased K/9, which it hasn’t. 

 
I apologize in advance that I’ve highlighted all pitchers I’ve discussed several times before. But c’mon, look at that list of names, and tell me who else you’d choose! I’m glad to see Dave Bush on a bad luck list where he perenially finds himself. It just wouldn’t be legit without his name. There has to be something with Bush that the current sabermetrics aren’t picking up because every single year there’s always something. Anyone want to volunteer to research David Bush Syndrome?

Roy Oswalt- If I haven’t made myself clear just yet, he’s pitching just about the same as he was last year, but the results have been far different. If his hip injury is truly in the past, his ERA should plummet to more Oswalt-like levels sooner or later.

Johnny Cueto- Did you really think I’d write an article without talking about my favorite person in the world? At least I know that one person is listening to my advice! Yes he gives up lots of fly balls and yes his peripherals have steadily declined. But his ERA still comes nowhere close to matching his overall season skills and those strike outs still provide value.

Brett Myers- It’s unfortunate that I haven’t read any updates on his velocity after he struck out 19 hitters in 15 1/3 innings over his last 2 games. Given the lack of commentary and the huge strike out totals, does this mean the velocity has returned? Any Phillies fans watch his starts and could share? That’s the only thing stopping me from making an all-out BUY call.

Josh Beckett- The ground balls from last year have become line drives this year, but other than that, he’s actually pitching better this season. His K/9 is up again to over a batter per inning and he’s maintained the dramatically improved walk rate he showed last year. Whatever happened in 2006 is a distant memory, though maybe reminding his owner of that season might help you in trade talks, wink, wink.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.