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Making Sense of Robinson Cano’s Season

June 29th, 2008 · 3 Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

I am still hearing about Cano’s poor start, and many analysts are predicting a big resurgence. Has it already happened?

Most fantasy analysts and players are still hot on Robby Cano, wondering either when he will turn it around or why he is having such a bad season. I think a little sanity is in order here; there is nothing wrong with Cano and his resurgence has been going on for a while now, unbeknownst to most.

Admittedly he had a horrible April, batting .151 with a .204 OBP. Sine May though he has essentially been the Cano of old. He hit .295 in May with a .299 xBA and .296 is June with a .304 xBA. In 2007 he had a .306 BA.

He has had contact rates in the bigs so far between 86% and 89%. In 2008 he has upped it a bit to 91% with a 94% mark in the last month.

His groundball rate, the biggest drag on his power, has been going down since April, with a 51% mark in April, 49% in May and 47% in June. His line drive rate has been on the rise, and is up to 20% in June. As Andrew Cleary pointed out previously, a rough guide for expected BABIP is line drive rate + .120. That leaves us with an expected BABIP of .320 in June.  On the season his line drive rate is 18%, giving us a .300 xBABIP versus a .250 actual BABIP. He is unlucky and it is primarily due to April.

The only problem has been his low BABIP, in the .250 range as of this writing. His skills are fine. His season is fine. His April was horrible. This is merely an issue of weighting; because of how bad his April was, his season superficially looks far worse than it is. If you own him now that April is in the books and nothing can be done about it. So ignore it and be patient and come down of the damn ledge!

Cano will not need a resurgence or a turnaround.  It has been in effect for a month or more already; it is just hidden. We are looking merely at a slice of his season at a given point in time. That is something that can and will mislead us, since what a player’s career is and what his stats represent is a continuum of performance that cannot be judged by one slice. Perception is reality to most, but not to the astute.

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3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 TG // Jun 30, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    I traded Cano a few weeks ago for Kinsler and now the owner is so pissed he is offering him back to me. What do yall think of this trade (12 team mixed points league):

    Kinsler
    Bedard
    C. Young (SP)

    for

    J. Santana
    R. Cano
    J. Clement

    I have 6 quality starters and we can only start 5, so giving up Young and Bedard for Santana makes sense I think. I am viewing the rest of the trade as a wash with a slight edge to Kinsler. Thoughts?

  • 2 Patrick DiCaprio // Jul 1, 2008 at 4:35 am

    I like that trade, though it is pretty fair to both. Good job!

  • 3 Mike Podhorzer // Jul 1, 2008 at 5:23 am

    And what about Cano’s power? His HR/F is down to 6.6%, after being at 11.5% last year and 12.3% the year before. He’s quietly getting his average back up to where it belongs, but he’s still missing the power stroke. Also only has a .116 ISO, compared to .182 last year.

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