Last night on The Roundtable Show we were split on the question of who will be more likely to get back to his established level, Alex Rios or Nick Swisher. This is a very close and tough question, so I wanted to go into more detail.
Alex Rios has arguably been one of the most disappointing players this year in the power department. His power has simply disappeared for no apparent reason, though who knows whether any PED use is an issue.
One issue with Rios is that he really has been lucky in his hitting metrics, or at least certainly has not been unlucky. He has a 35% hit rate, with a .264 expected batting average versus a .280 actual batting average. He has not been hitting flyballs at his normal rate, but he has never been a big fly ball hitter. In fact his skill set is very similar to his early seasons and one has to wonder whether last year was the fluke.
Lenny Melnick often says that “as the team goes so goes the player.” The Jays are in huge trouble right now. They are in last place, are 2-8 in their last ten games, they just fired their manager and brought in a relic from the past. What is worse is that their GM just put his foot in his mouth and is on the hot seat. The team is teetering on the precipice of disaster and Rios is right at the center of this as the team’s purported best player.
It seems that Rios is regressing in his skill set. He can turn it around and I really wouldn’t be surprised if he did, but turning around a skill set is far different than just getting some better luck.
Which brings us to Swisher. Swisher’s skill set is stable, and he has just been unlucky. He has a good eye with a 15% walk rate and has a BB/K rate of 0.75, which is very solid. He has struggled with a 28% hit rate, and has an expected batting average of .264 versus his actual batting average of .237. His flyball rate, contact rate, walk rate and virtually every other metric are within normal limits for Swisher.
So we have one player in Rios who has seen a skill decrease so far and who needs to turn it around, versus a player who has stable skills and has just been unlucky. In my mind this is an easy debate is you are asking which is more likely to turn it around; it has to be the guy who has merely been unlucky.
Alex Rios getting caught stealing
8 responses so far ↓
1 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 25, 2008 at 9:57 am
I knew just by seeing the 2 players up for comparison that you’d take the Swisher route. Always need to be different, huh?
Anyway, agreed Swisher has been lucky, and Rios’ skill set has regressed, but even if Swisher gets back to the level he was expected to produce at, he still comes nowhere near Rios’ roto value.
Both their xBAs are about the same at the moment, and we know based on history that Rios has the potential to hit for a higher average if his skill set improves to where it’s been in recent seasons. So let’s just call the average a wash, and the R/RBI numbers close, since Rios hits 3rd, albeit in a poor lineup.
Then it comes to down HRs and SBs. Even if Swisher hits 15-20 HRs the rest of the way, which is optimistic, Rios should hit at least 10, and throw in the 15 or so steals, it really isn’t close. Swisher doesn’t steal any bases, so he’d have to hit a ton of 2nd half HRs to match Rios’ roto value.
What does Baseball HQ project for each of their values the rest of the way?
2 Phil B // Jun 25, 2008 at 10:02 am
Great question, great analysis. It’s funny, in many leagues Swisher is available, while Rios is not. I suspect that it is b/c Rios was drafted in rounds 4-6, while Swisher typically 8-12. Do you recommend picking up Swisher(if available)? What would Rios bring in a trade possibly? Thanks
3 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 25, 2008 at 11:44 am
Hi Phil, of course it depends on the size and depth of your league, but most likely Swisher will have positive value. I think many people had too high expectations of him coming into the year, thinking he could hit 35 HRs in the launching pad of Chicago.
Either way, his skills are right where they should be, so I’d expect him to play at a pace that would match reasonable expectations of him before the season, like .260 with 25-30 HRs.
He was actually dropped in my most important league several weeks ago, which was odd since it’s the deepest player pool of all 4 of my leagues, and yet it was the only league he was dropped in. Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised, and was even more ecstatic when I nabbed him with like the last waiver claim!
Tough to say what you could get for Rios. Everyone is going to have a different opinion on whether he’ll turn it around, so you’ll have to get lucky and figure out which league member feels that way to get the most value.
4 mike // Jun 25, 2008 at 12:15 pm
I recently traded Rios, the trade was Rios,Hamels and Tejada for Rollins,Torii Hunter and Harang. What ya think? I still like Rios but I see Hunter doing the same things as Rios while playing in a better lineup. Plus I love Jimmy.
5 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 25, 2008 at 12:55 pm
On a strictly value basis, nice trade. Rollins is worth more than Rios, even if Rios weren’t underpeforming, at worst Hunter is worth around the same as Hamels, and I like Harang a little more than Tejada.
6 Phil B // Jun 25, 2008 at 1:08 pm
thanks for responding, In a 1-C, 3OF league I offered Rios for Geo Soto, i need a catcher, dude i offered the trade to needs OF
7 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 25, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Soto has certainly slowed down, so that offer has a good chance of being accepted. But it’s hard trading for catchers because most owners don’t have another on their bench and won’t want to dip into the free agent pool to find a replacement. Keep us updated on the trade status and if accepted, who he replaced Soto with.
8 Phil B // Jun 26, 2008 at 12:31 pm
He’s too attached to Soto, and rejected my offer. I currently have Suzuki as C - I saw the trade as me selling low on Rios(who’s doing better as of late) and him selling high on Soto - I’m a Cubs fan, and I know there’s a good amount of info on Soto, but I still don’t trust him(I just wanted an upgrade at catcher at the expense of my multiple OFs). I also should have mentioned the league is an OPS league, in which case Rios is worth less and Soto more. My bad. Thanks
Leave a Comment