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A Hop Around the NL

July 24th, 2008 · 6 Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Continuing my lazy hops around the boxscores, here are some interesting things that can be gleaned from the NL Boxscores.

Jumping right in…..

-Boy a lot of experts are chagrined at Albert Pujols right now. Most analysts advised people off of Pujols in 2008 and he was dropping to the second round in many drafts. This was undoubtedly the correct advice, though the results don’t show it. Pujols is hitting .352, with 18 HR and 66 RBI. You could use his career as a substitute for Joe DiMaggio’s war years, or Ted Williams’ for that matter, and no one could tell the difference. In fact when I looked at DiMaggio’s numbers, I may be doing Pujols a disservice.

-The Cubs are an interesting team offensively and a good data point why Major League GMs should not focus on batting average. They have scored 530 runs and have the best Pythagorean record in baseball, just ahead of the Red Sox. They have only one .300 hitter starting, and that is Ryan Theriot. The only other guy above .290 is Derrek Lee, and Soriano is third of their starters at .281. They have eight starters with OBPs over .350 which sure explains a lot.

-Edwin Encarnacion is having a Tom Brunansky-esque circa 1982 season with 19 HR and only 41 RBI. Does anyone besides me remember that year? I don’t think Mike Podhorzer was even born yet.

-At what point do we label Jeremy Hermida a disappointment? Two years ago I astutely spent $19 on him in my high stakes league auction only to see him flop. He is hitting .254 with 12 HR and is only slugging .417. His BABIP is over .300 so it isn’t that he is unlucky. He just doesn’t appear to have the ability we all thought. He is still young, far too young to give up on, but no doubt he has been fantasy kryptonite to quite a few owners.

-If some of these Pirates seasons are repeatable they may be very tough and can improve quickly in 2009. McLouth has not been a fluke based on his skills metrics. Doumit is hitting .322 with a .333 BABIP and a 22.5% line drive rate. These could be repeatable; even at a line drive rate of 20% he would likely be a .300 hitter as his expected BA is .322. Xavier Nady is one that got away for my hated Mets. With an expected BA of .315 and a linear weighted power score of 129 he looks to be an above average power hitter. Perhaps the Pirates should keep him rather than sell. Were it not for the utter implosion of Ian Snell they could have been a .500 team. Do you think the Pirates regret moving John Van Benschoten to the mound now? He is looking like a flop as a pitcher.

Why on earth would any team take a guy like Van Benschoten, who was a first team All American hitter at Kent State, and only let him pitch? I see no reason why a team can’t let him pitch and hit for a year or two in the minors to see what he can do. If anything their decision making was backwards; it is far easier to survive as a hitter so if a guy can do both it should be hitter first and pitcher second, unless his stuff is so overwhelming that it is clear he is a better pitcher. That was not and is not true in Van Benschoten’s case.

-One note I recently read about John Maine pointed out that he has been disappointing this year. Why? He is 9-7 with a 4.20 ERA. His big breakout last year ended with a 3.91 ERA. The difference is about six runs over 190 IP. Who in their right mind other than someone who doesn’t know their math would think that six runs over 190 IP is within his control or is something other than a random fluctuation? His nine wins prorate to just under 14 for the season and those seven losses come out to just under 11 losses. So this year he is 14-11 4.20 and last year he was 15-10 3.91. Come on.

If anyone wants to see more of this type of article feel free to e-mail us or comment!

 

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6 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Brian Joura // Jul 24, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Interesting take on the JVB dilemma.

    From what I recall - every team but the Pirates saw him as a hitter. So, it seems that he wasn’t an equal prospect at both jobs.

    But let’s say he was. Let’s say he had an equal shot at being a 20-game winner as a 40-HR hitter.

    If it’s easier to be a hitter (hope I’m not putting words into your mouth) then wouldn’t it make more sense to take the guy who could do either job and give him the harder one?

    If he injures himself, he can pull an Ankiel and still be a serviceable player.

    If he fails as a hitter, what’s the likelihood that he can go back to the minors and resurface as a serviceable pitcher?

    I’m not defending the Pirates in this particular situation - just saying I understand why you would go pitcher first.

  • 2 Brian Joura // Jul 24, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Also, I remember Bruno and 1982, which had one of the most underrated World Series of all time that year. However the lots of HR few RBIs isn’t as unusual as you might think. Marcus Thames has almost identical numbers this year as EE and Hanley Ramirez has 23 HR and 45 RBIs.

    And your old pal Kevin Maas had 21 HR and 41 RBIs back in 1990.

  • 3 Neil // Jul 24, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    Maine had an All-Star first half last year but a brutal second half. He was the best NL pitcher in 2008 spring training, so I guess many people felt he would improve on his 2007 campaign, but as of now, putting wins and ERA aside, his K rate is down, his BB rate is up and he is pitching slightly fewer innings per start. As a Mets fan, I watch him pitch…his only issue is with the walks - he walks 4 guys per 9 innings. He’s a fly ball pitcher, so he doesn’t get a lot of double play balls to erase the walks and he only pitched more than 6 innings twice this year.

  • 4 Dennis Geisleman // Jul 25, 2008 at 3:23 am

    I appreciate these types of comments in starting to target players to obtain (this year and next).

  • 5 Phil // Jul 26, 2008 at 6:24 pm

    All sounds good, the Maine stat is interesting, Hermida just killed the Cubs in back to back days so maybe he’s figuring it out(hopefully)

  • 6 Edwin Encarnacion « Shagging Balls // Jul 27, 2008 at 9:48 pm

    […] Jump to Comments Patrick DiCaprio at The Fantasy Baseball Generals noted the “special” season Edwin Encarnacion is having in Cincinnati, whereby his RBI total (41) is completely out-of-whack with his 19 home runs.  Of those with 19 or […]

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