Fantasy Baseball Generals

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Is Alexis Rios A Buy, Sell or Hold Candidate?

July 16th, 2008 · 2 Comments

Brian Joura

No matter what you think of the 27-year-old Toronto outfielder, you should not have much trouble finding a differing viewpoint, which should make a transaction involving him easier than with most players who share his pedigree.

Fantasy players and baseball fans love Alexis Rios. Coming off a 2007 season in which he was a five-category performer, Rios was a consensus top 30 pick coming into 2008, with some outlets ranking him in the top 20.

Rios has been a disappointment so far this year. He’s the 44th-best hitter (and roughly 20 pitchers have put up a higher dollar value) at the All-Star break and only a strong showing in steals has him ranked that high. Rios set a career-high with 17 steals last year and he has 23 currently.

But in runs, RBIs, average and especially power, Rios is nowhere near last year’s pace. And there’s really nothing in his statistical profile this year to suggest a turnaround. His BABIP is at .354, exactly 30 points higher than it was last year. His line drive percentage is at 21.6%, which is 1.5% above where it was a year ago. His fly ball rate is 32.1% down from 2007’s 44.1%, which was easily a career high. While that rate is down, it’s not out of line with what he’s done earlier in his career. In 2005 he had a 31.4% FB rate.

His HR/FB rate is the one stat that shows room for improvement, as it currently sits at just 4.3 percent. But even if he was somehow able to double his HR rate to last year’s mark, the homers still won’t come at last year’s rate due to this year’s increased ground ball tendency. And even if he was to get back to last year’s fly ball rate, his average would then take a huge hit.

Basically, the Alexis Rios of 2007 is not coming back this year.

My advice is to do what the Duke brothers were yelling at the end of Trading Places - “Sell!, Sell!, Sell!”

We’ve had numerous articles on this site talking about how hard it is to execute a traditional “Buy Low - Sell High” deal in a competitive league. Alexis Rios gives owners the rare chance to sell high on a player whose statistical profile actually fits better as a buy low candidate.

Don’t believe me? Well the host of last night’s Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show (I’m following his advice not to mention any names!) picked Rios as the player to watch in the second half, over Curtis Granderson, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.

A difference of opinion is what makes for a good horse race. My opinion after looking at the statistical record is that Alexis Rios is not going to be a strong second half performer. But hey, I’m the goofball who thinks Carlos Delgado is going to end up with 30 homers this year, so what do I know?

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Nathan M // Jul 17, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    18 bombs and 55 RBI and counting. You’re not crazy…he’s not the same guy that was blindfolded for a season and a half. Let’s go Mets.

  • 2 Patrick DiCaprio // Jul 18, 2008 at 6:07 am

    “picked Rios as the player to watch in the second half, over Curtis Granderson, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.”

    Markakis and Granderson first and then a huge step down to the others!.

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