As I sit here at my desk, fully planning to refresh Rotoworld every 5 minutes at the least, why not allow you, the reader, to pass the time between deals by reading another installment of the Leaders & Laggards? You know you were going to devote your entire day to baseball anyway, so let’s move into the hitter side of BABIP and check out the lists. Lots of the usual suspects still sitting amongst the leader boards.

 
And Matt Kemp continues to mystify with his ability to sustain such a ridiculously high BABIP. If he doesn’t improve his strikeout rate, there WILL be a year that his BABIP is merely above average, and he’ll hit .240 while being a huge bust in fantasy leagues and the baseball journalists wonder what happened to him.

I still can’t understand why I keep reading fantasy analysts’ opinions that Matt Holliday won’t suffer a large drop-off in production if traded by the Rockies. I even read someone who thinks he’ll still be worth a 1st round pick next year. How can you just completely ignore his home/road splits? I just don’t get it. Don’t tell me “he could hit anywhere” or how everyone hits better at home (which is true, but his splits are extreme). I’d love to see him traded and see how overvalued he is next year.

Two guys who were just traded, Xavier Nady and Casey Blake, make their way onto the list. I wonder if any of the 4 GMs involved were aware of each players’ BABIP. I’d believe that Brian Cashman wasn’t thinking he was acquiring a near All-Star whose performance was sustainable, as his trade was made out of necessity given the Yanks’ situation. However, the Blake acquisition could easily be because Ned Colletti simply sucks and has never looked at a stat line in his life. What their problem with Andy LaRoche is boggles my mind.

It looks like Johnny Damon’s “rejuvenation” is entirely BABIP-driven. All his metrics are nearly identical to last year’s when he posted a .747 OPS, but a .299 BABIP versus a .354 this year makes all the difference. And yes, I’m aware he was battling through injuries all through last year, but he’s only posted a BABIP above .319 twice in his career before this year! You can’t expect a 34 year old with no real statistical support to set a career high BABIP, so expect his AVG to fall below .300 soon.

 
Interesting to see both Paul Konerko and Ken Griffey Jr. on this list since as of this moment, Griffey has apparently been traded to the White Sox pending his approval (UPDATE: White Sox would give up Danny Richar and Nick Masset). We still don’t know who the White Sox will be giving up, but assuming it isn’t one of their OFers/1st basemen, and the trade goes through, Konerko apparently might lose the most playing time. This could end up being a terrible trade for the White Sox as there is no guarantee whatsoever that Griffey would outperform any of the hitters he’d replace in the lineup. He also can’t field any more, so without even knowing who the Sox would give up, I am already considering this a terrible trade for Kenny Williams.

Mark Ellis would make a nice acquisition for a team if the A’s decide to sell him. I remember reading this great article last year by sabermetrician Sky Kalkman arguing that Ellis was better than Carlos Lee. It was quite convincing and I bet most teams undervalue him, thought the A’s probably know what he’s worth. Anyway, he makes for a decent trade target in AL-Only leagues for those going for it all who may have a hole at 2nd or MI.

Adam Dunn is slowly improving his average, but his BABIP is still far below his career rate. Back in late June when he had an .879 OPS, I said in my PrOPS article at RotoAuthority that I wouldn’t be surprised if he posted a career high in OPS, as his metrics looked better than ever. Sure enough, his OPS has climbed to .952, just below his career high of .956 set in 2004. He’s on pace for a career high 48 HRs as well, and that OPS mark will easily set a new high as his BABIP continues to revert to his mean. Please explain to me how there isn’t interest from every single baseball team to acquire his services. Is a .385 OBP not high enough to look past all the strikeouts? C’mon!!

The perception probably is that Edwin Encarnacion is having yet another disappointing season. However, he has a very respectable .843 OPS and as we could see above, that should be even higher once his BABIP improves. One word of caution though is that his LD% is suspiciously low at just 14.4%, despite a career rate around league average at 19.2%. Another reason for the low BABIP is his ridiculously high FB% of 52.5%. He had never been above 44% before this year, so it looks like he has completely altered his swing to pump up his power. Maybe this is in reaction to the constant jerking around the Reds organization has done to him and his desire to prove to the team that he should be a mainstay in the lineup. Although his defense sucks, he’s a guy other teams would be wise to call the Reds about to gauge their willingness to trade him.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.