Moving right along, today I’m back to look at a pitcher’s HR/F allowed. Last year, Chris Young led all qualified pitchers in baseball with a 4.1% HR/F, which probably had a lot to do with PETCO. The next guy on the list, though, was Brad Penny, who sported a 4.7% HR/F, which is fairly close to the leaders right now. On the opposite end was A.J. Burnett, lagging pitchers last year with a 17.7% HR/F. This means that good or bad luck could certainly last all season, which is what Patrick brings up a lot, but of course you’d rather bet on skill or lack of skill driving a pitcher’s future ERA than luck.

 
So much for the Dana Eveland supporters who thought a breakout was coming. His ERA certainly makes it appear that this is his coming out party, but the skill set doesn’t agree. I think he’s a great guy to trade in a keeper league as some other owner must really like his future prospects based on his current ERA and you most certainly have him at a cheap salary.

Cliff Lee’s skills are still staying high as the magic potion he took in the off-season continues to work its…well…magic. He just refuses to fall apart, and although he’s clearly not a 2.43 ERA pitcher, there’s absolutely no indication that he won’t remain very good the rest of the way. If there was ever any doubt about the huge role of luck in fantasy baseball, he’s one of the best examples for those lucky owners who plucked him from free agency after a couple of good starts.

Is the end nearing for Edinson Volquez’s fairytale season? It certainly is possible, but unfortunately I really can’t answer that with any confidence. We knew that eventually all his walks would start to make a dent in his ERA, as his LOB% falls and he starts allowing more HRs. The million dollar question of course is how far does he fall (if he falls at all) and how much value will he have the rest of the way? My crystal ball is a little fogged up right now, but again, he’s striking out over a batter an inning and getting grounders at a 50% rate. This could easily just be a bump in the road, as any starter is entitled to a couple of bad starts. What might be fun is finding out what the Volquez owner in your league is thinking. Is he panicking and trying desperately to trade him while he still has substantial value in his mind?

I did it. I traded Tim Lincecum about 3 weeks ago, just as I advised several weeks ago on the Roundtable in the segment on players to sell high. The trade was in my points league, where I was over the innings cap pace, had Rickie Weeks just go down with no idea when he’d be returning, and CJ Wilson stinking up the joint in one of our 2 RP slots. So I traded Lincecum for Brian Roberts and Takashi Saito, which was easily the best offer I got for Lince, surprisingly enough. Since the trade, Lincecum has posted a 4.00 ERA, and since my advice, he’s posted a 4.32 ERA, so gotta love the timing so far. He has since improved his skill set, if you could believe it, but can he really post an ERA under 3.00? And will he continue receiving the 5.76 runs of support from such a poor offense?

Where have all the strikeouts gone, Carlos Zambrano? Sure, the improved walk rate is nice and all, but how do you drop from 7.4 K/9 in 2007 (which was already a 1.5 K/9 decline from 2006) to just 5.9 this year? Us fantasy analysts were already concerned in the pre-season with his high walk rate and declining strikeout rate, combined with his heavy workload, and most pegged him as a bust. Luckily for his owners this season, he’s kept his ERA below 3.00, thanks to a low HR/F and nearly 80% LOB%. He’s already missed time this season with shoulder problems, so those issues along with the baffling strikeout rate decline spells a pitcher I’d be rushing to try to trade.

Roy Oswalt’s HR/F continues to fall, as has his ERA along with it. He’s posted a much more Oswalt-like 3.11 ERA in his last 7 starts, quieting those who were spouting about a decline in velocity or less bite on his curve or slider or whatever other nonsense they could come up with to explain simply poor luck. I would still treat his value the exact same as you did before the season, and would not sell him at a discount, nor be afraid to acquire him.  

Man, this list is littered with just terrible pitchers, isn’t it? I have like no one else to talk about that I either haven’t discussed a million times (Myers, Arroyo, Cueto) or have any desire to analyze. Anyone itching for some commentary on Paul Byrd? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

I guess this gives me a good opportunity to tout Paul Maholm as absolutely legit and a nice cheap value in NL-Only leagues. Unfortunately he doesn’t strike out enough hitters to have much upside in smaller mixed leagues, but he should maintain his current value in the NL-Only’ers and deep mixed leagues.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.