If you haven’t realized it yet, there is a strong relationship between BABIP and HR/F with LOB%. Obviously, if a pitcher has been getting “hit lucky” with his BABIP, that means fewer opportunities for the opposing team to score and more runners stranded. Similarly, a pitcher with a low HR/F will also be stranding more runners as the homers that are guaranteed to score a base runner aren’t being hit with as much frequency, increasing a pitcher’s LOB%. Anyway, with that bit of wisdom out of the way, here are the lists.

 
What has happened to Johan Santana? A move to the NL should have increased his K/9, or at the very least, kept it the same! Yet, his strikeout rate has dropped by about 2 batters a game, which is huge. So it’s pretty amazing to me that his ERA is still below 3. He’s getting the most groundballs of his career, so that has helped, but there has to be something deeper here. I wonder if we hear something during the off-season that gives us some explanation as a pitcher who has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball shouldn’t suddenly lose 2 K’s a game while in his prime.

I traded Tim Lincecum a couple of weeks ago which I’ve mentioned before, but now there’s speculation that he’ll be shut down for the final weeks of the season again. That means that if you’re in a H2H league, he could become worthless when you need him most. I could definitely see him finishing with an ERA around 3, but he can’t be expected to continue winning at the 11 win pace he has given the Giants poor offense. I might be overrating how other owners might view him, but if you have the chance to trade him for a top 3 or 4 round hitter, you can’t pass that up.

What to expect from Edinson Volquez the rest of the way? The good news is that his ERA has really risen in past weeks and is now a lot closer to where he should end up. His HR/F is now at 8.2%, which is much higher than it was earlier in the season, and a rate that could be reasonably sustained. His LOB% has finally fallen below 80%, so more regression there might not be required. The bad news is that, like Lincecum, he could be shut down for the last couple of weeks. I highly doubt you could really get much for him if you’re looking to trade him as I’m sure most owners think the end of his surprising season is near. Whatever you decide, I think an ERA in the mid 3’s the rest of the way seems reasonable given that his GB% has remained at 50%.

Man, John Lannan has certainly been passed around like the neighborhood whore in my H2H league. Average control and a poor strikeout rate make that ERA appear to be a mirage. An excellent GB rate, though, of 56% makes up for the other poor skills, but this is not someone you should expect to provide any value in mixed leagues the rest of the season.

 
Wow, this is one of the most boring lists of names I’ve ever seen.

So I was watching a little bit of Hiroki Kuroda’s last start since I’m facing him in my H2H league and his stuff looked much better than his 5.3 K/9 rate would suggest. His fastball was in the low to mid 90’s, while his slider looked pretty good. He reminded me of his teammate, injured closer Takashi Saito. I wonder what the scouting folks would attribute his poor strikeout rate to given seemingly above average stuff. He also has a 50% groundball rate, so might he be a sleeper next year? Maybe sleeper status should be reserved more so for NL-Only leagues since he’d really need to pump up that K/9 to have the upside in mixed leagues.  

So now we know why Pat Gillick acquired Joe Blanton. Clearly, Gillick looked at Blanton’s LOB%, deemed him unlucky, and hoped his regression toward the league average would occur while in a Phillies uniform. Just kidding. The words “workhorse”, “innings-eater” and “gamer” were more likely used. Or maybe Gillick wanted to show that he was with the times and read Moneyball, and felt he needed to acquire a player featured in the book to prove it.

Remember when Derek Lowe’s ERA was over 5 earlier in the season after a string of rough outings and talk of elbow issues? That sure seems like a distant memory. I’d like to thank my H2H opponent once again for dropping him and allowing me to claim him and receive like a 3 ERA from his starts for my team. Reminder #383,393,384 to never give up on an established player after a month and a half, especially when the underlying metrics suggest the player has merely suffered from poor luck.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.