Forget the value part of the equation, there is a subtle factor that makes this trade a win for the Brewers in a big way.

No one can deny that the Brewers gain immensely by having Sabathia if they make the playoffs. From a monetary perspective, it is fairly well established that a team benefits the most the year after they make the playoffs, and for a team that hasn’t been in the postseason for 25 years there may be a huge monetary payoff for the Brewers next year.

But aside from that, even if we look to the future this is still a win for the Brewers, despite the loss of LaPorta. For their troubles the Brewers will likely have five early picks, assuming they lose Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency. And they have Jack Zduriencik.

Jack Zduriencik is, in my view, the best in the business. His official title is Vice President - Special Assistant to General Manager for Player Personnel. Jack was the Executive of the Year in 2007, a well deserved honor. When he drafted LaPorta many caviled, claiming that it was a reach or that they didn’t need him. My thought at the time was that if Jack selected him he had a master plan and LaPorta would be worth the alleged overdraft, sort of a toned down version of the learned minority theory that we have discussed previously.

As long as they keep Jack in the fold, one may expect that the Brewers will get excellent value from this group of picks.  Let’s ignore the value of Sabathia for a moment, and just consider the players they gave away compared to the value of having two extra draft picks and five draft picks before the second round overall. We do not know how this calculus will pan out in the long term, but the value of the two picks they get for losing Sabathia to free agency may colorably be enough to balance the scales at least.

If we now include the possibility of hitting two home runs with those five early picks, so that we get a multiplier effect, now the calculus shifts towards the picks, though relying heavily on the shoulders of Zduriencik for value.  Of course this is a gamble and no certainty, but we must look at the thought process that is going on, and not how it actually works out.

On top of that we can now toss the value of Sabathia into the equation. If they make the playoffs I think it is a clear win for the Brewers from a monetary standpoint. Baseball Prospectus estimates that a playoff appearance is generally worth approximately $30M to a team’s revenue. Clearly Sabathia can be the difference maker here, and is probably worth two or three wins for the second half, a large number when we consider that any playoff margin is likely to be razor thin. This has to be balanced against the expected value, in dollars, that LaPorta (ignoring the others for now) would generate compared to his salary.

Baseball Prospectus again comes to the rescue. They have a metric called MORP, which they define as follows:

Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).

As listed in a player’s PECOTA card, a player’s MORP includes the major league minimum salary of $380,000 for 2007. Further, in a player’s Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 8% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a player’s Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)

When I see this trade it looks like the Brewers can win in the short term and in the long term, despite giving up LaPorta. The MORP of LaPorta is $15,225,000 through 2014. This is a very solid number by the way. So assuming that Sabathia will be worth $30M one can at least start to try to balance the scales by saying that if the Brewers make the playoffs half the time then the profit balances about roughly with the marginal value of LaPorta. One can alter the percentage chance of a playoff appearance however one sees fit to balance the scales here.

What is the value of the two picks? This is very hard to say, but no matter what the average value is, the actual value is either probably close to zero if the guy flops or something in the range of a few million if he is a replacement player or far higher if he is a star.

No one really knows how this calculus will actually work out, but the elements are in place for us to make an informed opinion, in dollar terms. If Jack comes up with one good to excellent player it is a big win in the dollar column, depending on just how valuable LaPorta turns out to be in excess of the MORP figure from Baseball Prospectus.  If he comes up with two such players it is a rout. If he comes up with zero it may still be a win if they make the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs and none of those two picks turn out to be anything then they lose in the deal.